{"id":2838,"date":"2022-01-31T23:46:17","date_gmt":"2022-01-31T23:46:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/?p=2838"},"modified":"2022-01-31T23:46:17","modified_gmt":"2022-01-31T23:46:17","slug":"indexed-bond-etfs-to-gain-assets-and-liquidity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/indexed-bond-etfs-to-gain-assets-and-liquidity\/","title":{"rendered":"Indexed Bond ETFs to Gain Assets and Liquidity"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lost in all the market volatility and concerns about interest rate hikes and inflation was a<strong> regulatory ruling with major implications for asset capture in the ETF industry<\/strong>. The New York State Department of Financial Services is the state&#8217;s insurance regulator.\u00a0 In December it published a new regulation that, until Jan. 1, 2027, allows shares of an ETF to be treated as bonds for the purpose of a domestic insurer&#8217;s risk-based capital report provided the ETF meets certain criteria. The two most pertinent criteria are that the ETF tracks a bond index and has at least $1 billion in assets under management. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Why is this so important?\u00a0 At the end of 2019, the US Insurance industry reported holding more than $4.5 trillion in bonds.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8220;This puts bond ETFs on a level playing field with bonds in an insurer&#8217;s portfolio,&#8221; said Robert S, Kapito, President of BlackRock, on Jan. 14 during the company&#8217;s earnings call for the fourth quarter 2021.\u00a0 He added that BlackRock is &#8220;very excited about the fact that insurers now will use more ETFs to represent their bond portfolio.&#8221;\u00a0 BlackRock is the sponsor of iShares.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>All of the approximately 5,000 stocks, 16 sector groups, 140 industries, and 500 ETFs have been updated on\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">www.ValuEngine.com<\/a><\/strong><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Free Two Week Trial to all 5,000 plus equities and ETFs covered by ValuEngine\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/pub\/VeSubscribeInfo?pid=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">HERE<\/a><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The difference between treating a holding as debt rather than equity for risk-based capital requirement purposes &#8220;is orders of magnitude,&#8221; said attorney Daniel A. Rabinowitz, a partner at the law firm Kramer Levin Naftalis &amp; Frankel. He states that &#8220;You have to hold much, much more capital against equity securities.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Among criteria an ETF must meet to qualify under the new regulation are that the fund tracks a bond index and has at least $1 billion in assets under management. A quick top-level analysis of the current array of bond ETFs offered in the US provides key insights.\u00a0 The bottom line is that iShares and Vanguard will probably be the largest beneficiaries of the new rules.\u00a0 A closer look reveals why.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There are 97 Bond ETFs that currently satisfy those two criteria.\u00a0 The lion\u2019s share of the assets are accounted for by the top 25.\u00a0 Those ETFs have between $10 billion and $91 billion in AUM.\u00a0 The remaining 72 have less than $10 billion apiece. Of these, there are another 20 Bond ETFs with between $5 and $10 billion.\u00a0 Two index providers, Bloomberg and ICE Data Services, are dominant in AUM and number of products.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Taking a deeper dive, 17 of the largest 25 ETFs are iShares.\u00a0 Six are Vanguard products with one apiece issued by Schwab and SPDRs.\u00a0 It surprised me that four of the top 5 in AUM were Vanguard ETFs.\u00a0 It also surprised me that very close to half (47.3%) of the total AUM in the top 10 were in those Vanguard products.\u00a0 Here is a table from an ETF.com screen showing the top ten ETFs of the 97 that would qualify today under the new NY State Insurance rule reducing capital requirements.<\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Ticker<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Name<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Issuer<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Expense Ratio<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>AUM (Billions)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Description<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">AGG<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Blackrock<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.04%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$89.65\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fixed Income: U.S. &#8211; Broad Market, Broad-based Investment Grade<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BND<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanguard<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.04%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$82.94\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fixed Income: U.S. &#8211; Broad Market, Broad-based Investment Grade<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">VCIT<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanguard<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.04%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$45.75\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fixed Income: U.S. &#8211; Corporate, Broad-based Investment Grade Intermediate<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BSV<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanguard<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.05%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$41.42\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fixed Income: U.S. &#8211; Broad Market, Broad-based Investment Grade Short-Term<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">VCSH<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanguard<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.04%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$41.19\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fixed Income: U.S. &#8211; Corporate, Broad-based Investment Grade Short-Term<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">TIP<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">iShares TIPS Bond ETF<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Blackrock<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.19%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$36.86\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fixed Income: U.S. &#8211; Government, Inflation-linked Investment Grade<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">LQD<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">iShares iBoxx USD Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Blackrock<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.14%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$36.57\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fixed Income: U.S. &#8211; Corporate, Broad-based Investment Grade<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MUB<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">iShares National Muni Bond ETF<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Blackrock<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.07%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$24.55\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fixed Income: U.S. &#8211; Government, Local Authority\/Municipal Investment Grade<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MBB<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">iShares MBS ETF<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Blackrock<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.04%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$24.47\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fixed Income: U.S. &#8211; Government, Mortgage-backed Investment Grade<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">IGSB<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">iShares 1-5 Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Blackrock<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.06%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$23.06\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fixed Income: U.S. &#8211; Corporate, Broad-based Investment Grade Short-Term<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Current ValuEngine reports on these ETF\u2019s can be viewed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/rep\/mresearch_report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">HERE<\/a><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Summarizing some salient points from this table:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The top 10 indexed bond ETFs account for $446.5 billion or about 37% of the $1.2 trillion currently in bond ETFs.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The two largest bond funds, one from iShares and the other from Vanguard, follow very similar total US bond market indexes and are almost identical in AUM <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Together,<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> they comprise about $170 billion.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All of the Vanguard bond ETFs have iShares counterparts with only AGG being larger than the Vanguard entry.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In assessing what all this will mean for the exchanged-traded ecosystem requires two data points I do not have:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">How quickly will insurance companies take advantage of the simplified operational processes, lower trading, custody, clearing, settlement and compliance costs and greater fungibility they would realize by replacing the bonds they hold with qualifying bond ETFs?<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What percentage of\u00a0 the dollar value of insurance company bond holdings that can potentially take advantage of this ruling?<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From a bottom line and best practices perspective, the answer to the first question should be: ASAP.\u00a0 The operational advantages and cost savings to be realized from switching qualifying bond holdings to shares of ETFs are tremendous.\u00a0 Tempering this excitement is my personal experience in my profession.\u00a0 In my 40 years in the investment industry, even the most obviously beneficial changes take at least months and generally years to be accepted and adopted.\u00a0 It is also true that the US insurance industry\u2019s record of implementing lightning-fast changes is less than prodigious.\u00a0 Still, the cost savings on the table is huge.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The answer to the second question requires knowing whether most of the other state insurance regulators will follow suit with similar rulings so that there is national adoption of this treatment of bond ETFs regarding capital requirements.\u00a0 My expectation is that the national regulatory part of the equation will be taken care of very quickly.\u00a0 Once that hurdle is overcome, my best guess is that at least 75% of the fixed income assets held by US insurance companies could be converted in this manner into indexed bond ETFs.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine research available: \u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuenginecapital.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">www.ValuEngineCapital.com<\/a><\/strong><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Taken altogether the implications are huge.\u00a0 As of year end, according to ETFGI, a leading provider of institutional ETF Research, there were 2628 US equity ETFs comprising $5.5 Trillion in AUM.\u00a0 In contrast, the number of bond ETFs was just 496 with assets of just $1.2 trillion.\u00a0 In both cases the magnitude approaches five-to-one in favor of equities.\u00a0 If this conversion of assets becomes a groundswell over the next 3 years as I suspect it must, the ratio of AUM should shrink from 5:1 to about 1:1 unless other factors intervene.\u00a0 When you consider that the global context is that more than 70% of capital markets assets are in fixed income securities rather than equities, this global ETF AUM shift makes sense.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Beyond insurance companies, what are the implications?<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Obviously, Blackrock and Vanguard will profit enormously.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Schwab is perfectly positioned to add significant assets to its existing few products and create more so that their customers could quickly help them meet the threshold criteria.\u00a0 Looking at current customers also makes me think that FlexShares at Northern Trust could be able to take advantage of this move.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SSgA\u2019s SPDR brand is the wild card here.\u00a0 Fixed income ETFs have simply not been a focal point for them until now.\u00a0 To what extent are they in a position to change that quickly?\u00a0 It will be interesting to see.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fee wars among all providers are likely in my opinion.\u00a0 Most products are tightly priced in the single digits of basis points but TIPS, LQD and a few other iShares may have some wiggle room.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For all investors, more assets mean more liquidity in Bond ETFs.\u00a0 That is a very positive and could even become a self-feeding juggernaut.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hedge Funds should find it easier to implement long-short strategies intrinsic to global macro and other arbitrage products.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The three groups of products that this does not assist are active ETFs, preferred stock ETFs and equity ETFs.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The expected windfall of liquidity means little for most clients of financial advisors because the combination of relatively long durations and low yields-to-maturity (YTM) compared to high durations make the two top ETFs, AGG and BND relatively unattractive now.\u00a0 Long-term bond prices are expected to fall as dramatically as rates are expected to rise.\u00a0 On a real-return basis, the expected rise in inflation could make long bond investments even less attractive.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On this last point, there is an ETF that Ron DeLegge, Founder of ETF Guide, just discussed on a recent podcast: PFLD as an alternative to AGG.\u00a0 Upon investigation I agree it is worth a long look.\u00a0 PFLD is The AAM Low Duration Preferred &amp; Income Securities ETF.\u00a0 It aims to provide higher annual income streams with lower implied interest rate risk (as measured by duration) than total bond portfolios.\u00a0 During the past 12 months, in a similarly fearful environment, PFLD recorded a total return of +2.82% as compared with -3.56% for AGG.\u00a0 Two bonuses are that PFLD pays monthly dividends, and its preferred stock income is classified as qualified which may be taxable at a lower rate for some investors.\u00a0 One detriment is a high expense ratio of 0.45% as compared with 0.04% for AGG although in recent periods, its returns have more than compensated for its fees.\u00a0 To clarify, PFLD will not benefit from the projected windfall of insurance company assets but is included as an attractive alternative to bond ETFs in the current yield, interest rate risk and inflationary environment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In summary, it is generally not easy to predict a seismic change in the capital markets.\u00a0 In this case, I am compelled to do so.\u00a0 Be prepared to watch the asset growth in bond ETFs significantly outpace asset growth in equity ETFs during the next three years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">By\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/talkmarkets.com\/contributor\/Herbert-Blank\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Herbert Blank<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, Senior Quantitative Analyst, ValuEngine Inc<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">www.ValuEngine.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>_______________________________________________<\/p>\n<h5>All of the approximately 5,000 stocks, 16 sector groups, 140 industries, and 600 ETFs have been updated on\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">www.ValuEngine.com<\/a><\/h5>\n<h5>Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine research available through\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuenginecapital.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ValuEngine Capital Management, LLC<\/a><\/h5>\n<h5>Free Two Week Trial to all 5,000 plus equities covered by ValuEngine\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/pub\/VeSubscribeInfo?pid=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">HERE<\/a><\/h5>\n<h5>Subscribers log in\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/ve\/mainve?pid=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">HERE<\/a><\/h5>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lost in all the market volatility and concerns about interest rate hikes and inflation was a regulatory ruling with major implications for asset capture in the ETF industry. The New York State Department of Financial Services is the state&#8217;s insurance regulator.\u00a0 In December it published a new regulation that, until Jan. 1, 2027, allows shares &#8230; <a title=\"Indexed Bond ETFs to Gain Assets and Liquidity\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/indexed-bond-etfs-to-gain-assets-and-liquidity\/\" aria-label=\"More on Indexed Bond ETFs to Gain Assets and Liquidity\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[130,1,39],"tags":[1939,1940,1950,1953,1954,1952,1951,1949,1942,1731,1948,1945,1947,1946,1510,1944,28,1656,1659,63,1941,1943],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2838"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2838"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2838\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2839,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2838\/revisions\/2839"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}