{"id":2867,"date":"2022-03-30T15:53:11","date_gmt":"2022-03-30T15:53:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/?p=2867"},"modified":"2022-03-30T16:02:38","modified_gmt":"2022-03-30T16:02:38","slug":"how-did-the-stores-of-value-hold-up-during-the-turbulent-first-quarter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/how-did-the-stores-of-value-hold-up-during-the-turbulent-first-quarter\/","title":{"rendered":"How Did the Stores of Value Hold Up during the Turbulent First Quarter?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When ProShares launched BITO, the Bitcoin Futures Strategy ETF last autumn, the ETF along with Bitcoin were promoted as \u201cstores of value.\u201d\u00a0 The rationale was that Bitcoin was independent of stock markets and would provide diversification away from equities and tend to rise when equity markets fell.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unconvinced, I wrote a column at that time entitled \u201cBeware of BITO.\u201d\u00a0 I had two major reasons:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin had not been a major alternative asset with the history of gold or commodity pools. Both are time-tested stores of value that have historically prospered in prolonged and significant equity market downturns.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">BITO does not hold \u201cspot\u201d Bitcoin. It holds Bitcoin Futures. Many investors have become angry in the past after incurring losses on ETFs that hold futures. Oftentimes, investors do not understand the mathematical implications of market futures compounding and\/or did not understand the rolling risks of contango and backwardation. In my opinion, ETFs that buy and sell 30-day futures daily are excellent trading tools but are not suitable for buy-and-hold investors.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine research available: \u00a0\u00a0<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuenginecapital.com\/\"><b>www.ValuEngineCapital.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fast forward to today and we are closing in on the end of a very turbulent quarter for stock markets.\u00a0 It has been precisely the type of quarter that diversification from core equity holdings into true stores of value would have mitigated losses.\u00a0 In this column, we take a look at ETFs with exposures to gold and commodity pools relative to BITO, the Bloomberg Bond Aggregate and the S&amp;P 500 Index.\u00a0 Most of the data below was sourced from ETF.com reports.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The analysis includes:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>GLD, <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SPDR Gold Trust \u2013 <\/span><b>GLD<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> uses a \u201cpass-through\u201d grantor trust structure to attempt to track the gold spot price, less expenses and liabilities, using gold bars held in London vaults.\u00a0 When sold, its capital gains are taxed at a higher \u201ccollectibles\u201d rate, not the capital gains rate used on true ETFs holding securities using the fund structure governed by the Securities Act of 1940.\u00a0 <\/span><b>GLD<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is the oldest and by far the most expensive of the five exchange-traded grantor trusts holding gold. <\/span><b>IAUM <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">from iShares has the lowest expense ratio (0.15% vs. 0.40%) and <\/span><b>BAR <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">from Granite Shares posting the highest net-of-fee returns. <\/span><b>GLD <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">is used for this study because it has the longest history.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>GSG, <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">iShares S&amp;P GSCI Commodity Indexed Trust \u2013 <\/span><b>GSG <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">is a commodity pool tracking a version of the S&amp;P GSCI., giving it fairly neutral exposure to the broad energy commodities market. Instead of holding contracts in the underlying commodities, GSG only holds long-dated contracts on the GSCI itself, as well as sometimes quite substantial cash and T-Bill assets. These commodities are weighted by reference to world production statistics and liquidity requirements. As a commodity pool, GSG reports any cap gains marked to market on a K-1 at a blended rate.\u00a0 Currently, the 5 largest sector exposures are: Energy (55%); Agriculture (19%); Industrial Metals (10%); Livestock (10%) and Precious Metals (5%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>GDX, <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Van Eck Gold Miners ETF \u2013 <\/span><b>GDX <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">is a true ETF using the exchange-traded version of the 1940 Act structure that holds the stocks of companies in the gold mining industry.\u00a0 It tracks a market-cap-weighted index of global gold-mining firms.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>GUNR, <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">FlexShares Morningstar Global Upstream Natural Resources Index Fund \u2013 <\/span><b>GUNR<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is a true ETF using the exchange-traded version of the 1940 Act structure. \u00a0 It tracks an index of global companies that operate, manage, or produce natural resources in energy, agriculture, metals, timber or water, thus providing exposure in traditional natural resources industries. Notably, <\/span><b>GUNR<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> extends its coverage to include &#8216;upstream&#8217; businesses like containers and packaging, commercial services, and paper and forest products. To curate the portfolio, the fund\u2019s underlying index selects 120 stocks using a proprietary methodology. It then caps weightings at the regional and sector level, minimizing the impact of firms of more popular names in the portfolio. Overall,<\/span><b> GUNR<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has a broad and diverse take on a market that lends itself to concentration. The index is reconstituted semi-annually and rebalanced quarterly<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>BITO, <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF &#8211; BITO actively manages a portfolio of front-month CME bitcoin futures.\u00a0 The fund will invest in cash settled, front-month bitcoin futures, traded on commodity exchanges registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), such as the CME Futures Exchange. The value of bitcoin futures is determined by the CME Group and Crypto Facilities Bitcoin Reference Rate (CME CF BRR), which aggregates bitcoin trading activity across major global bitcoin spot trading venues during a one-hour window. The one-hour window is divided equally into twelve 5-minute segments.\u00a0 It uses a fund structure that gains its exposures through a wholly owned Cayman Island subsidiary. It will only qualify for 1940-Act fund tax treatment if it derives at least 90% of its gross income for each taxable year from \u201cqualifying income,\u201d meet certain asset diversification tests at the end of each taxable quarter, and meet annual distribution requirements.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>AGG<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF \u2013 AGG tracks an index of US investment-grade bonds. The market-weighted index includes Treasuries, agencies, CMBS, ABS and investment-grade corporates.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>SPY, <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust &#8211; <\/span><b>SPY<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> tracks the S&amp;P 500, a market-cap-weighted index of US large- and midcap stocks selected by the S&amp;P Committee and the benchmark most widely used by mutual fund companies and institutions to represent the performance of the US Stock Market.\u00a0 As discussed in prior columns, its antiquated Unit Investment Trust structure paired with a higher management fee makes <\/span><b>SPY <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">an inferior choice to<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vanguard\u2019s <\/span><b>VOO<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> or iShares <\/span><b>IVV<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for buying core S&amp;P 500 exposure. Nevertheless, it\u2019s used here as it has the longest history for comparative purposes.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Current ValuEngine reports on these ETF\u2019s can be viewed\u00a0<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/rep\/mresearch_report\"><b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Until this year, the returns of the S&amp;P 500 were so strong that there were only two pronounced negative four-month periods since 2003.\u00a0 To capture downturn behavior, we included profiles from Sep. 1 \u2013 Dec. 31, 2008 and Sep. 1 \u2013 Dec. 31, 2018.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><b>GLD<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>GSG<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>GDX<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>GUNR<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>BITO<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>AGG<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>SPY<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Start Date<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nov-04<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jul-06<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">May-06<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sep-11<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Oct-21<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sep-03<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jan-1993<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">YTD NAV\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+6.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><b>+43.5%<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+20.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+20.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-8.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-5.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-6.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1-Yr. NAV\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+12.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><b>+78.3%<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+21.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+22.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-4.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+15.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Historic 3-Yr Ann. NAV\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+13.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+15.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><b>+20.4%<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+13.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+1.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+18.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Historic 5-Yr Ann. NAV\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+8.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+11.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+11.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+10.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+2.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><b>+15.7%<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Historic 10-Yr Ann. NAV\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+1.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-3.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-1.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+4.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+2.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><b>+14.5%<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2018 Sep thru Dec.<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+10.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-16.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><b>+23.2%<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-3.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+3.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-6.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2008 Sep thru Dec.<\/span><\/td>\n<td><b>+7.3%<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-52.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+1.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+5.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-27.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Std. Dev.<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">15.3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">29.2<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">36.6<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">22.3<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><\/td>\n<td><b>3.8<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">15.9<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Beta<\/span><\/td>\n<td><b>0.07<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1.62<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.93<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1.10<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1.00<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1.00<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"># of Holdings<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">2<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">20<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">59<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">112<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">N\/A<\/span><\/td>\n<td><b>10,027<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">500<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Div. Yield<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><b>3.3%<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1.7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">1.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expense Ratio<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.40%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.75%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.51%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.46%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0.95%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><b>0.04%<\/b><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 0.09%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Assets (AUM)<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$68 Billion<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$2 Billion<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$16 Billion<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$8.1 Billion<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$1.2 Billion<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$88 Billion<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">$406 Billion<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Structure<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Grantor Trust \/ Bullion in Vault<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Grantor Trust\/ GSCI Index Futures Commodities Pool\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Indexed Stocks<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Indexed Stocks<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fund-owned Cayman Subsid. \/ Actively Trades Bitcoin Futures<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Indexed Bonds<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Indexed Stocks<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ETF Sponsor<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SPDR\/<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SSgA<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">iShares<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Van Eck Global<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Flex Shares<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ProShares<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">iShares\/ Blackrock<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">SPDR\/ SSgA\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>All of the approximately 5,000 stocks, 16 sector groups, 140 industries, and 500 ETFs have been updated on\u00a0<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\"><b>www.ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Free Two Week Trial to all 5,000 plus equities and ETFs covered by ValuEngine\u00a0<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/pub\/VeSubscribeInfo?pid=1\"><b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p>OBSERVATIONS:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the short time it has been in existence, nothing about <\/span><b>BITO<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2019s price history in general or on days, weeks or months when <\/span><b>SPY <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">declines suggest to me that it is a store of value.\u00a0 In the market decline this year, <\/span><b>BITO<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2019s return has been worse than the market and all of the other ETFs profiled here that are bought by investors as hedges against equity declines. To compound the volatility problem, <\/span><b>BITO<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> pays no dividends and thus gives investors no cushion against declines.\u00a0 What about spot Bitcoin as a diversifier? The Coinbase Bitcoin Index history started in 2014.\u00a0 Since that time, there has only been one significant downturn period for the S&amp;P 500 until this year other than the six weeks of the pandemic in 2020.\u00a0 That was September 1 through December 31, 2018.\u00a0 In that period, the S&amp;P 500 Index was down 6.2% and the Coinbase Bitcoin Spot Index was down 10.5%.\u00a0 As detailed earlier, I consider the <\/span><b>BITO <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ETF to be a useful short-term trading tool for professional traders, not suitable for most buy-and-hold investors.\u00a0 There also may be yet-to-be-resolved tax issues for certain classes of investors. Another deterrent to holding <\/span><b>BITO <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">as a supposed \u201cstore of value\u201d is its whopping 0.95% expense ratio, higher than any of its alternatives.\u00a0 <\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>GLG <\/b>has been a rockstar in 2022 thus far and even more so during the past 12 months.\u00a0 More than half of the weight of the futures held by <b>GLG<\/b> represent the energy sector.\u00a0 Financial instruments tied to energy instruments have done well during some other stock market downturns such as 1974.\u00a0 However, <b>GLG <\/b>\u00a0is extremely volatile and was the worst performer by far among these \u201cstores of value\u201d in both the 2018 and the 2008 downturns. The tremendous weighting toward oil has led some institutions to seek products tied to more evenly weighted commodities futures.\u00a0 <b>GLG<\/b> owners must also use IRS form K-1, frequently complicating tax preparations and higher taxes paid.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>GLD, <\/b>SPDR Gold Trust, started trading in 2004 and provided strong supporting evidence since then on gold bullion as a store of value when the S&amp;P 500 is in decline. It\u2019s the only one of the alternatives listed here to rise by at least 6% in all three S&amp;P 500 declines.\u00a0 Moreover, because it does track bullion so reliably and sites such as macrotrends.net track gold spot prices annually going back to 1969, it is easy to see that gold bullion performed splendidly as a store of value during the pronounced declines of 2000-2002, 1978-9 and 1974-5. Taking the calculations back to 1969 through YTD 2022, a 10% allocation to gold each year would have lowered total return by an annualized 0.72% per year but lowered the overall standard deviation of the S&amp;P 500 for that period from 17.3 to 13.4 for the 90-10 allocation.\u00a0 If drawdowns are as much of a consideration as overall growth, a steady 10% allocation to gold bullion can mitigate losses.\u00a0 It will, however, lessen gains in robust growth periods.\u00a0 If buying exchange-traded shares holding bullion, I\u2019d recommend considering <b>BAR (<\/b>which I own) or <b>IAUM <\/b>rather than AUM leader <b>GLD <\/b>due to fee and subtle structural differentials.\u00a0 One other deterrent is the fact that all of these pass-through-for-taxation-purposes grantor trusts require a K-1 because gold is taxed as a collectible and not an ordinary capital gain.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\">The remaining exchange-traded products discussed here are true ETFs that buy and sell stocks or bonds in the 1940 Act structure using the exchange-traded option.\u00a0 These can and do use the tax-advantageous features of the ETF structure and when shares are sold, they are taxed as ordinary capital gains. Continuing down the list:<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>GDX, <\/b>Van Eck Gold Miners ETF, has provided returns as robust in most periods as GLD with the better structure for taxable investors. Keep in mind, however, that <b>GDX <\/b>is not nearly as correlated to the spot price of gold as <b>GLD <\/b>is.\u00a0 No matter how close the relationship of an operating company is to a commodity, there are still other factors beyond the commodity that may affect share price. That being said, <b>GDX <\/b>has had stellar performance recently, even outperforming <b>SPY as well as GLD <\/b>for the 3-year annualized period ending today, something not many non-leveraged ETFs have been able to accomplish.\u00a0 This ETF has been around since 2006 and did well, although not as well as <b>GLD<\/b>, in the 2008 financial crisis.\u00a0 On the other hand, it held up even better than <b>GLD <\/b>in the tariff-inspired downturn.\u00a0 <b>GDX <\/b>is more than twice as volatile as <b>GLD <\/b>with a whopping 36% per year standard deviation and 50% more of a decline than <b>GLD <\/b>during the 2010 \u2013 2015 period. On the other hand, <b>GDX <\/b>provides a 1.6% dividend yield, something to cushion its fall a bit during declines.\u00a0 That is slightly higher than the yield of the S&amp;P 500.\u00a0 The sponsor is Van Eck Global, the ETF provider that has been managing mutual funds and accounts using gold mining company stocks for more than 50 years, something no other provider can say.\u00a0 Although the 51-basis point fee for an index that represents a single global industry is slightly high, investors may find the comfort of this expertise to be worth it.\u00a0 I\u2019d rate <b>GDX <\/b>as another option to consider as a store of value to mitigate overall drawdowns caused by equity declines.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>GUNR, <\/b>FlexShares Morningstar Global Upstream Natural Resources Index Fund, is a very interesting alternative to <b>GSG. <\/b>It is highly diversified with a very well-constructed, if complex, index.\u00a0 Energy is its biggest sector but has less than half the weight it does in <b>GSG.\u00a0 <\/b>The operating companies involved in all of its commodities tend to be a bit less correlated to the underlying commodities they process than the tighter relationship that the gold mining companies in <b>GDX.\u00a0 <\/b>Nevertheless, it has delivered solid performance throughout the entire 10-year-boom for the S&amp;P 500 relative to the other ETFs analyzed here. Its 45-basis point fee, 30-basis points lower than <b>GSG, <\/b>seems very reasonable for the exposures it delivers.\u00a0 I\u2019ll admit that I had no idea that <b>GUNR <\/b>had more than $1 billion in assets, let alone more than $6 billion since its 2011 inception.\u00a0 Another bonus in buying <b>GUNR <\/b>now is a very attractive 3.3% dividend yield, just about double that of <b>AGG<\/b>. That constitutes a generous cushion against potential declines. The downside relative to <b>GDX <\/b>and <b>GLD <\/b>is that <b>GUNR <\/b>failed to mitigate against the <b>SPY <\/b>2018 tariff-war decline and given its methodology, it probably would have also suffered a small decline during the 2018 Financial Crisis.\u00a0 Still, if you wish to diversify from equity exposure to another exposure with different sensitivities, <b>GUNR <\/b>seems to be preferential in many ways to <b>GSG<\/b>.<b> <\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\">Given the current yield curve structure, it is not difficult to understand why <b>AGG <\/b>did not provide diversification benefits during the year-to-date <b>S&amp;P 500 <\/b>decline.\u00a0 Historically, however, it has held up quite well and its decline that has been almost the same as <b>SPY <\/b>in 2022 is far from disastrous in magnitude.\u00a0 <b>AGG<\/b>\u2019s dividend yield of 1.7% also mitigates against the magnitude of future drawdowns.\u00a0 The interesting feature of bond funds is that as the fund price decreases, income yields increase. This is why it is very rare for a bond fund to suffer a negative total return for compound periods greater than 5 years.\u00a0 The relatively tiny annual standard deviation of <b>AGG <\/b>also speaks to its stability as a perennial store of value.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In summary, the most important part of this analysis is that I found no evidence to support popular assertions that <\/span><b>BITO <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">or its other Bitcoin Futures Strategy ETF cousins should be considered stores of value to mitigate overall wealth against equity declines.\u00a0 Although it has been a superior performance in recent years, I also find little to recommend the purchase of <\/span><b>GSG<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the commodities-pool exchange traded product by iShares in this pursuit.\u00a0 Gold bullion has continued to demonstrate its historically robust performance as a store of value.\u00a0 However, there are few rational reasons for buy-and-hold investors to pay more than 2.5 times the fee of <\/span><b>IAUM <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(15 bp) for <\/span><b>GLD <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(40 bp).\u00a0 That said, <\/span><b>GDX <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">which owns the stocks of gold mining companies, and <\/span><b>GUNR <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">which owns companies involved in producing upstream commodities, have delivered comparable performance histories with better tax treatment than <\/span><b>GLD.\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine research available: \u00a0\u00a0<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuenginecapital.com\/\"><b>www.ValuEngineCapital.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Finally, we come to the much-maligned <\/span><b>AGG. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0Some mutual fund strategists have been fighting for the podium in a rush to tell long-term investors to dump all their bonds.\u00a0 I respectfully demur. It is true that the currently inverted yield curve has greatly increased\u00a0 bond duration risks resulting in the likelihood that bond fund prices are likely to continue to decline for some time.\u00a0 Although eventually the income yields of these funds will increase, that will take some time meaning the pain will continue.\u00a0 However, eventually the current situation will change and historically managers have done a terrible job of timing such change.\u00a0 My take on the situation is that it is fine and probably preferable to reduce a 60-40 allocation to bonds to 50-30-20 with 20 being allocated to alternatives such as <\/span><b>GDX <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">and <\/span><b>GUNR.\u00a0 <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This will mitigate against drawdowns with a digestible opportunity cost when the S&amp;P 500 inevitably emerges from its decline.\u00a0 That said, I would not liquidate my entire allocation to bonds.\u00a0 From a long-term stability perspective, bond allocations continue to serve the purpose.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>By\u00a0Herbert Blank<\/p>\n<p>Senior Quantitative Analyst, ValuEngine Inc<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\">www.ValuEngine.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"mailto:support@ValuEngine.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">support@ValuEngine.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>_______________________________________________<\/p>\n<h5><b>All of the approximately 5,000 stocks, 16 sector groups, 140 industries, and 600 ETFs have been updated on\u00a0<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\"><b>www.ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine research available through\u00a0<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuenginecapital.com\/\"><b>ValuEngine Capital Management, LLC<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Free Two Week Trial to all 5,000 plus equities covered by ValuEngine\u00a0<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/pub\/VeSubscribeInfo?pid=1\"><b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Subscribers log in\u00a0<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/ve\/mainve?pid=1\"><b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When ProShares launched BITO, the Bitcoin Futures Strategy ETF last autumn, the ETF along with Bitcoin were promoted as \u201cstores of value.\u201d\u00a0 The rationale was that Bitcoin was independent of stock markets and would provide diversification away from equities and tend to rise when equity markets fell. Unconvinced, I wrote a column at that time &#8230; <a title=\"How Did the Stores of Value Hold Up during the Turbulent First Quarter?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/how-did-the-stores-of-value-hold-up-during-the-turbulent-first-quarter\/\" aria-label=\"More on How Did the Stores of Value Hold Up during the Turbulent First Quarter?\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[130,1,39],"tags":[1939,1619,1892,1985,1760,1761,1719,1982,1880,1984,1981,1983,1731,1510,1713,1726,1712,28,1656,63],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2867"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2867"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2867\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2871,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2867\/revisions\/2871"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}