{"id":2966,"date":"2022-09-22T18:14:19","date_gmt":"2022-09-22T18:14:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/?p=2966"},"modified":"2022-09-22T18:14:19","modified_gmt":"2022-09-22T18:14:19","slug":"six-month-update-wealth-preservation-with-limited-market-participation-in-a-risk-on-environment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/six-month-update-wealth-preservation-with-limited-market-participation-in-a-risk-on-environment\/","title":{"rendered":"Six-Month Update – Wealth Preservation with Limited Market Participation in a Risk-On Environment"},"content":{"rendered":"

Six months ago, I discussed ways that investors could stay invested with one eye squarely on wealth preservation in a risk-on environment.\u00a0 We are still in a risk-on environment where the choices we reviewed in March are still relevant.<\/span><\/p>\n

One half of the list included five stock-based ETFs without derivatives that focus on stocks with low volatilities. These were:<\/span><\/p>\n

All of the approximately 5,000 stocks, 16 sector groups, 140 industries, and 500 ETFs have been updated on\u00a0<\/b>www.ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n
Free Two Week Trial to all 5,000 plus equities and ETFs covered by ValuEngine\u00a0<\/b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n

SPLV<\/b>, the Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF. It selects about 100 S&P 500 stocks with the lowest daily volatility over the twelve months<\/span><\/p>\n

USMV<\/b>, the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF. USMV is optimized to minimize overall portfolio price volatility while keeping other factor exposures similar to the S&P 500 Index.\u00a0 It follows a complex factor optimization approach to reconstitute and rebalance portfolios.<\/span><\/p>\n

DIVZ, <\/b>the TrueShares Low Volatility Equity Income ETF, holds an <\/span>actively managed<\/b>, concentrated portfolio of US-listed companies that are favorably valued and have attractive dividends. The fund also seeks to deliver lower volatility than the overall market.\u00a0 The fund adviser initially screens US-listed securities for sustainable dividend growth using various quantitative and qualitative indicators. Then high-quality companies are identified based on high cash flow, stable revenue streams and capital reinvestment programs. This process is expected to deliver lower volatility than the overall US equity market. Finally, the fund adviser selects securities trading at attractive valuations. The actively-managed fund\u2019s methodology results in a narrow selection of 25-35 stocks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

XLU<\/b>, the Select Sector SPDR Utilities ETF, was the first Utilities ETF. It is composed of all the utilities in the benchmark index.\u00a0 XLU has generally, but not always, risen about half as much as SPY in strong years for the benchmark index and fallen about half as much when the S&P 500 fell.\u00a0 Its Beta of 0.47% reflects exactly that. Since the sector is the least volatile of the 11 GICS Sectors and its dividend yield is generally higher than the index, <\/span>XLU <\/b>is often considered an all-weather supplemental core holding for dividend investors. Since it restricts itself to S&P 500 utilities, it does tend to be more concentrated than Vanguard\u2019s equivalent utility index fund, <\/span>VPU.<\/b><\/p>\n

LVHD<\/b>, Franklin Low Volatility High Dividend ETF explicitly aims for stable yield. Its use of technical inputs as well as fundamental factors in search of dividend sustainability.\u00a0 Specifically, LVHD considers the volatility of prices and earnings in addition to yield and positive earnings. The fund selects 50 to 100 stocks, then weights them subject to constraints on concentration, turnover and liquidity.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The following ETFs are partially derivative based and engineered to mitigate losses in equity market downturns.\u00a0 As such, they do not have ValuEngine reports available.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Current ValuEngine reports on these stocks or ETFS can be viewed <\/b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n

These five are:<\/span><\/p>\n

ASPY<\/b>, ASYMShares Asymmetric S&P 500 ETF is an indexed and rules-based alternative strategy to hedging US large-cap equities. The fund targets between -25% and 75% net long equity exposure based on market risk.\u00a0 The strategy aims to provide protection against bear market losses, by being net short, and to capture the majority of bull market gains, by being net long, with respect to exposure to the S&P 500\u00ae Index.\u00a0 The strategy is powered by ASYMmetric Risk Management Technology\u2122, an intellectual property that uses price-based algorithms to identify \u201crisk-off\u201d,\u201d risk-elevated.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

BJAN, <\/b>Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF, uses options in an effort to moderate losses on the S&P 500 over a one-year period starting each January.<\/span> The fund foregoes some upside return as well as the S&P 500\u2019s dividend component, because the options are written on the price (not total) return version of the index. In exchange for preventing realization of the first 9% of the S&P 500\u2019s losses, investors forgo upside participation above a certain threshold, which is reset annually.\u00a0 Investors who buy at any other time than the annual reset day may have a very different protection and buffer zone. The issuer publishes effective interim levels daily on its website.\u00a0 The fund must be held to the end of the period to achieve the intended results. The targeted buffers and caps do not include the fund\u2019s expense ratio. The fund is actively managed, resets annually and uses listed options exclusively.\u00a0 Innovator has 11 clone funds: <\/span>BFEB, BMAR, BAPR, <\/b>etc. to accommodate investors who want to invest on the first day of other months and wish to lock in the same kind of protection.<\/span><\/p>\n

QAI,<\/b> IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF, seeks investment results that track, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Index. The IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Index attempts to replicate the risk-adjusted return characteristics of hedge funds using multiple hedge fund investment styles, including long\/short equity, global macro, market neutral, event-driven, fixed-income arbitrage and emerging markets. IQ is managed by New York Life Investment Management, owner of the Index IQ brand.<\/span><\/p>\n

RPAR<\/b>, the Risk Parity ETF is actively managed yet nonetheless aims to align its exposure to an index, the Advanced Research Risk Parity Index. The index is diversified across four asset classes (TIPS, US Treasury Bonds, global equities and commodities), seeking returns similar to global equities with less risk over time.\u00a0It is sponsored by LA-based hedge fund provider Evoke Aris.<\/span><\/p>\n

SPD<\/b>, the Simplify US Equity PLUS Downside Convexity ETF owns S&P 500 ETFs but can have up to 20% of its portfolio in put options as warranted by market conditions according to its decision rules.\u00a0 <\/span>SPD <\/b>aims to deliver simple convexity without the complexity of buffered ETFs<\/span><\/p>\n

The table below lists data in pertinent categories for all 11 ETFs explained above as well as two benchmarks. The first is <\/span>SPY<\/b>, the original SPDR owning the S&P 500 Index portfolio and a standard equity benchmark ETF.\u00a0 The second is <\/span>AGG, <\/b>the iShares Core Aggregate Bond ETF and the oldest bond ETF, because many of the derivatives-based ETFs benchmark themselves against the traditional 60\/40 stocks-to-bond ratio portfolio.\u00a0 <\/span>SPY <\/b>and <\/span>AGG <\/b>are considered the standards by most professionals because they have the most Assets Under Management and the deepest liquidity.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The following data table comparisons:<\/span><\/p>\n

Current ValuEngine reports on these stocks can be viewed\u00a0<\/b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Category\/ ETF Ticker<\/b><\/td>\nVE\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

Rating<\/b><\/td>\n

YTD Price Change<\/b><\/p>\n

Mar. 15<\/b><\/td>\n

YTD Price Change Sep. 16<\/b><\/td>\n12-Mth Price Change<\/b><\/td>\nDividend Yield<\/b><\/td>\nBeta<\/b><\/td>\nExpense Ratio\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SPLV<\/b><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n-4.7%<\/span><\/td>\n-6.2%<\/span><\/td>\n+2.4%<\/span><\/td>\n2.0%<\/span><\/td>\n0.69<\/span><\/td>\n0.25%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
USMV<\/b><\/td>\n3<\/b><\/td>\n-9.3%<\/span><\/td>\n-10.9%<\/span><\/td>\n-4.9%<\/span><\/td>\n1.4%<\/span><\/td>\n0.75<\/span><\/td>\n0.15%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DIVZ<\/b><\/td>\n1<\/span><\/td>\n+1.4%<\/span><\/td>\n+1.0%<\/span><\/td>\n+6.1%<\/span><\/td>\n4.3%<\/b><\/td>\n0.58<\/span><\/td>\n0.65%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
XLU<\/b><\/td>\n1<\/span><\/td>\n+9.3%<\/b><\/td>\n+8.7%<\/b><\/td>\n+16.0%<\/b><\/td>\n2.7%<\/span><\/td>\n0.47<\/span><\/td>\n0.10%<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
LVHD<\/b><\/td>\n2<\/span><\/td>\n-3.4%<\/span><\/td>\n-4.9%<\/span><\/td>\n+4.2%<\/span><\/td>\n2.9%<\/span><\/td>\n0.74<\/span><\/td>\n0.29%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SPD<\/b><\/td>\nN\/A<\/span><\/td>\n-18.5%<\/b><\/td>\n-18.7%<\/span><\/td>\n-13.6%<\/span><\/td>\n1.4%<\/span><\/td>\n0.69<\/span><\/td>\n0.28%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
QAI<\/b><\/td>\nN\/A<\/span><\/td>\n -8.3%<\/span><\/td>\n-8.9%<\/span><\/td>\n-10.0%<\/span><\/td>\n0.3%<\/span><\/td>\n0.30<\/b><\/td>\n0.79%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ASPY<\/b><\/td>\nN\/A<\/span><\/td>\n-10.0%<\/span><\/td>\n-10.1%<\/span><\/td>\n-3.9%<\/span><\/td>\n0.2%<\/span><\/td>\nN\/A<\/span><\/td>\n0.95%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RPAR<\/b><\/td>\nN\/A<\/span><\/td>\n-4.0%<\/span><\/td>\n-21.1%<\/b><\/td>\n-20.0%<\/b><\/td>\n4.1%<\/span><\/td>\nN\/A<\/span><\/td>\n0.51%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BJAN<\/b><\/td>\nN\/A<\/span><\/td>\n-5.4%<\/span><\/td>\n-10.4%<\/span><\/td>\n-8.0%<\/span><\/td>\n0.0%<\/span><\/td>\n0.52<\/span><\/td>\n0.79%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
SPY<\/b><\/td>\n3<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n-7.8%<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n-16.3%<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n-9.9%<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n1.5%<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n1.00<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n0.09%<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AGG<\/b><\/td>\nN\/A<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n-3.8%<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n-12.0%<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n-13.1%<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n2.0%<\/span><\/i><\/td>\nN\/A<\/span><\/i><\/td>\n0.04%<\/i><\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine research available: \u00a0\u00a0<\/b>www.ValuEngineCapital.com<\/b><\/a><\/b><\/h5>\n

Key Findings:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. XLU, <\/b>the Select Sector SPDR Utilities ETF, has been the clear winner among this selection of below-average risk ETFs in year-to-date and 12-month performance.\u00a0 It also has the lowest Beta of the stock ETFs and the lowest expense ratio of the entire selection.\u00a0 It has certainly provided better-than-expected returns with low volatility during this torrential market season cementing its historic status as an all-weather safe haven. <\/span>Going forward, however, there are some warning flags.\u00a0 One warning is that all but one of its holdings is rated as overvalued by ValuEngine and that on a valuation basis, XLU <\/b>is in our bottom decile.\u00a0 With a 1 rating, <\/span>XLU<\/b> is rated to greatly underperform the market in the next six to 12 months.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. DIVZ, <\/b>the TrueShares Low Volatility Equity Income ETF, has been the second-best performer both year-to-date and on a 12-month basis. It is the only other of the ten ETFs measured to have a positive return during this period. It has been the top performer altogether YTD in the actively managed US large cap category.\u00a0 This bolsters the point in the latest SPIVA research that the relative performance by active managers relative to benchmark index funds tends to improve in choppy and down markets.\u00a0 This has especially held true in the first year or two of bear markets in the past.\u00a0 In the sixth decile with about half of its stocks rated as undervalued, <\/span>DIVZ <\/b>is closer to fairly valued according to VE valuation models in comparison with <\/span>XLU.\u00a0 <\/b>However, <\/span>DIVZ and XLU <\/b>are identically out-of-favor with ValuEngine\u2019s main model with a 1 rating and is also expected to greatly underperform.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. As a category, the 5 low-volatility and income-oriented stock ETFs all outperformed <\/span>SPY <\/b>on a year-to-date and 12-month basis. Thus, for tactical investors fearing that the market was too high and overdue for a correction last autumn or winter, moving all or part of one\u2019s core US equity allocation to these types of ETFs including the five listed here would have rewarded such investors well, especially on a relative basis.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. Although the three ETFs with \u201cvolatility\u201d in the name, <\/span>LVHD, SPLV<\/b> and <\/span>USMV <\/b>all had negative returns for the YTD period, all were considerably less negative than benchmark index ETF <\/span>SPY<\/b>\u2019s returns.\u00a0 Moreover, the first two posted positive returns for the 12-month period ending this week with <\/span>LVHD<\/b>, the<\/span> Franklin Low Volatility High Dividend ETF, posting superior returns to <\/span>SPLV <\/b>by<\/span> Invesco in both periods.\u00a0 <\/span>Although USMV <\/b>from iShares<\/span> had a negative return for the past 12-months, it was much less negative than that of <\/span>SPY.\u00a0 <\/b>Moreover, in terms of where to reallocate now, ValuEngine\u2019s models rate <\/span>USMV <\/b>3, making it the only ETF among these five rated to perform in line with the market.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
      \n
    1. Moving to the derivatives-driven ETFs that represent themselves as controlling market risk, two to of the five ETFs in this category, <\/span>RPAR, <\/b>the Risk Parity ETF<\/span> and <\/span>SPD, <\/b>the Simplify Low Volatility ETF failed to limit investor drawdowns relative to <\/span>SPY.\u00a0 <\/b>Thus, both failed in satisfying their stated objective functions precisely when their investors needed them to do so.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
    2. In contrast, market-neutral <\/span>QAI <\/b>from IQ overcame a rocky first quarter to be virtually flat the past 6 months, taking its YTD number to a drawdown that was more than 700 basis points less than that of the S&P 500.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
    3. Better still, both <\/span>BJAN<\/b> and <\/span>ASPY <\/b>delivered investor protection from market downturns in line with their stated investment objectives.\u00a0 <\/span>BJAN, <\/b>the Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF, seeks to track the return of the SPDR S&P\u00a0 ETF Trust (<\/span>SPY<\/b>), up to a predetermined cap, while <\/span>buffering<\/b> investors against the first 9% of losses over the 12-month outcome period.\u00a0 It has done exactly that, limiting investor 12-month losses to 8%.\u00a0 <\/span>ASPY, <\/b>ASYMShares Asymmetric S&P 500 ETF, follows a rules-based, quantitative long\/short hedging strategy that seeks to provide protection against bear market losses, by being net short, and to capture the majority of bull market gains, by being net long, with respect to exposure to <\/span>SPY. <\/b>It has performed so well that its 12-month loss of less than 4% ranks it easily the best among these five derivatives-engineered ETFs.\u00a0 Its year-to-date performance of -10.1% is second best to QAI\u2019s -8.9%.\u00a0 Since <\/span>ASPY<\/b> uses a signaling algorithm to switch from participation mode to protection mode and back again, its timing cannot be infallible.\u00a0 Thus far in its young life, however, it has delivered well for investors looking for downside protection while also expecting to participate in market gains.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Conclusion<\/b><\/p>\n

      Where this blog is concerned, the failures of <\/span>RPAR <\/b>and <\/span>SPD<\/b> to fulfill the expectations of downside protection in bear markets have led to the decision to drop these two ETFs from the next update.\u00a0 Going forward, the ValuEngine models doubt that the two most successful ETFs on this low-volatility list since last autumn will be able to continue their outperformance.\u00a0 The models prefer <\/span>USMV <\/b>in this category.\u00a0 All are prudent choices.\u00a0 Time will tell which will fare best in the quarters to come.<\/span><\/p>\n

      By Herbert Blank<\/b><\/h5>\n
      Senior Quantitative Analyst, ValuEngine Inc<\/b><\/h5>\n
      www.ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n
      support@ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/h5>\n
      _______________________________________________<\/b><\/h5>\n
      All of the approximately 5,000 stocks, 16 sector groups, 140 industries, and 600 ETFs have been updated on\u00a0<\/b>www.ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n
      Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine research available through\u00a0<\/b>ValuEngine Capital Management, LLC<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n
      Free Two Week Trial to all 5,000 plus equities covered by ValuEngine\u00a0<\/b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n
      Subscribers log in\u00a0<\/b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Six months ago, I discussed ways that investors could stay invested with one eye squarely on wealth preservation in a risk-on environment.\u00a0 We are still in a risk-on environment where the choices we reviewed in March are still relevant. One half of the list included five stock-based ETFs without derivatives that focus on stocks with … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[130,1,39],"tags":[1939,2002,1975,1955,1704,1760,1761,1709,1719,1733,1731,2059,1972,1510,1713,1974,1937,1729,1726,1699,1687,1703,1934,1656,1659,63,1900],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2966"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2966"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2966\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2967,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2966\/revisions\/2967"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2966"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2966"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2966"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}