{"id":3115,"date":"2023-04-18T16:58:30","date_gmt":"2023-04-18T16:58:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/?p=3115"},"modified":"2023-04-18T16:58:30","modified_gmt":"2023-04-18T16:58:30","slug":"large-cap-growth-rampage-could-be-creating-small-cap-value-opportunities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/large-cap-growth-rampage-could-be-creating-small-cap-value-opportunities\/","title":{"rendered":"Large-Cap Growth Rampage Could Be Creating Small-Cap Value Opportunities"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In January, we published \u201cRotating Regimes \u2013 What to Plan For in 2023.\u201d At that time, we recounted that the 2022 US Stock Market was a conflagration that wiped out almost everything in its path with the exception of a few industries and ETFs. At that time, we reported that two Benchmark ETFs we track, the Nasdaq-100 ETF (<b>QQQ<\/b>) and the Russell 1000 Growth ETF (<b>IWF<\/b>), both had ValuEngine high <b>4<\/b> (Buy) ratings for forecast 1-year and 6-month returns.\u00a0 Both had dropped 30% in 2022 and our predictive model called for rebounds with six-month returns of better than 4%. Those two predictions appear to have been strong calls thus far.\u00a0 Both thus far in 2023 show returns above 15%.<\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>All 5,000 stocks, 16 sector groups, 140 industries, and 500 ETFs have been updated.<\/b><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Two week free trial:<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\"><b> www.ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p>The bad news for high-tech growth investors is that following these impressive run-ups, our model indicates that ETFs based upon indexes with large weighting in high-tech growth may have gotten ahead of themselves at this juncture year-to-date. We now rate <b>QQQ a <\/b>1 (Strong Sell) with a rating of <b>2<\/b>, just slightly better, for <b>IWF<\/b>, the large cap growth ETF. Both are now expected to give back more than 5% of these gains in the next twelve months.\u00a0 To underscore the underlying reason, <b>XLK, <\/b>the Select Technology Sector ETF that is even more concentrated in large cap tech than <b>QQQ, <\/b>is also rated <b>1 <\/b>(strong sell) and projected to lose more than 6% of its current price during the next twelve months.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps an even more daunting observation is that the iShares S&amp;P 500 ETF, <b>IVV<\/b>, is now rated <b>2 <\/b>(Sell) and is projected to lose nearly 5% during the next six months.\u00a0 This is noteworthy because it is almost always rated <b>3 <\/b>(hold) since it is based upon the most commonly used market barometer and intuitively connotes the center of the investable universe.\u00a0 Another rare occurrence is that all 10 of its 10 top-weighted holdings are rates <b>2 <\/b>(Sell).\u00a0 Does that mean that the ValuEngine predictive model is bearish on the entire stock market? Not at all, in fact it is telling that <b>RSP, <\/b>the Invesco Equal Weighted S&amp;P 500 ETF \u2013 containing the identical 500 stocks \u2013 is rated <b>3 <\/b>(hold), consistent with the norm.\u00a0 As we will see in the following benchmark ETF review, there are a number of attractive size and style indexes according to the VE model right now. It follows therefore that there are also plenty of stocks.\u00a0 It\u2019s just that those opportunities are almost all outside of large cap growth right now.<\/p>\n<p>The ETF reports on ValuEngine for ETFs that follow market benchmarks provide a side benefit in writing market analyses.\u00a0 They are a window to implicit forecasts for 3-, 6- and 12-month forecasts VE models are making for each benchmark\u2019s ETF portfolio.\u00a0 This is because the ratings and projections combine bottom-up constituent analysis with analyses of the historical price movements of the ETF in different market environments. \u00a0 This empowers us to provide both looking back and share our model\u2019s views on that which lies ahead.<\/p>\n<p>The benchmark indexes and ETFs analyzed here are:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">The S&amp;P 500 Index representing US Large Cap, the ETF is iShares\u2019 <b>IVV.\u00a0<\/b><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">The S&amp;P 400 MidCap Index representing US MidCap; the ETF is SPDR\u2019s <b>MDY<\/b>;<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">The Russell 2000 Index representing US Small Cap; the ETF is iShares<b> IWM;<\/b><\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">The Russell 1000 Large Cap Value Index; the ETF is iShares\u2019 <b>IWD<\/b>;<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">The Nasdaq-100, constructed as an index using the top 100 non-financial stocks with primary listing on the Nasdaq, but now regarded as the premier US Big Tech Index; the ETF is Invesco <b>QQQ<\/b>.<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">In most quarters, we use a column to represent <b>IWF<\/b>, Russell Large Cap Growth.\u00a0 Since we\u2019ve already covered that it is rated very similarly to <b>QQQ <\/b>exposures right now, and we\u2019ve identified a cap and style segment ETF that is currently rated <b>5<\/b> (Strong Buy), we substitute the Russell 2000 Small Cap Value ETF (<b>IWN)<\/b> for <b>IWF <\/b>in today\u2019s analysis.\u00a0 We also have the aforementioned Invesco equally weighted S&amp;P 500 ETF (<b>RSP<\/b>) to show the contrast in forecasts and valuations attributable solely to the weighting scheme.\u00a0 Again, it is unusual to capture this much of a dispersion between the two.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Current ValuEngine reports on these stocks or ETFS can be viewed<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/rep\/mresearch_report\"><b> HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p>All historical data are as of 04\/09\/2023.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><b>IWD<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>IWN<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>IWM<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>MDY<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>QQQ<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>RSP<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>IVV<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Market Index Being Tracked<\/td>\n<td><b>Russell Large Cap Value<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Russell 2000 Small Cap Value<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Russell 2000 Small Cap<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>S&amp;P Midcap<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Invesco<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Nasdaq 100\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Invesco Equal-Weighted S&amp;P 500<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>iShares S&amp;P 500<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>ValuEngine Rating<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>3<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>5<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>4<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>4<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>1<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>3<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>2<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Forecast 3-mo. Price Return<\/b><\/td>\n<td>+0.27%<\/td>\n<td><b>+1.13%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>+0.62%<\/td>\n<td>0.89%<\/td>\n<td>-0.49%<\/td>\n<td>+0.20%<\/td>\n<td>-0.28%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Forecast 6-Mo. Price\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n<td>+2.50%<\/td>\n<td><b>+4.95%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>+3.02%<\/td>\n<td>+2.91%<\/td>\n<td>+1.63%<\/td>\n<td>+2.40%<\/td>\n<td>+1.81%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Forecast 1-yr. Price Return<\/b><\/td>\n<td>-2.51%<\/td>\n<td><b>+0.80%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>-0.28%<\/td>\n<td>-1.73%<\/td>\n<td>-5.90%<\/td>\n<td>-3.24%<\/td>\n<td>-4.90%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Historic 1 mo. Price Return<\/td>\n<td>-2.54%<\/td>\n<td>-9.71%<\/td>\n<td>-7.85%<\/td>\n<td>-6.49%<\/td>\n<td><b>+6.01%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>-3.86%<\/td>\n<td>+1.10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Historic 3 mo. Price Return<\/td>\n<td>-1.92%<\/td>\n<td>-5.81%<\/td>\n<td>-2.08%<\/td>\n<td>-1.65%<\/td>\n<td><b>+18.32%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>-1.47%<\/td>\n<td>+5.43%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Historic 6 mo. Price Return<\/td>\n<td>+7.34%<\/td>\n<td>-1.06%<\/td>\n<td>+0.10%<\/td>\n<td>+5.36%<\/td>\n<td><b>+13.69%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>+7.34%<\/td>\n<td>+9.67%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Historic 12-month Price Return<\/td>\n<td>-7.80%<\/td>\n<td>-15.06%<\/td>\n<td>-13.10%<\/td>\n<td>-6.60%<\/td>\n<td>-9.97%<\/td>\n<td>-8.32%<\/td>\n<td>-8.36%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Historic 5-Yr Ann. Price Return<\/td>\n<td>+4.77%<\/td>\n<td>+2.34%<\/td>\n<td>+0.10%<\/td>\n<td>+5.36%<\/td>\n<td><b>+13.90%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>+7.48%<\/td>\n<td>8.75%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Volatility<\/td>\n<td>19.34%<\/td>\n<td>25.71%<\/td>\n<td>24.46%<\/td>\n<td>22.90%<\/td>\n<td>22.20%<\/td>\n<td>20.91%<\/td>\n<td>18.90%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Sharpe Ratio<\/td>\n<td>0.25<\/td>\n<td>0.09<\/td>\n<td>0.13<\/td>\n<td>0.26<\/td>\n<td><b>0.63<\/b><\/td>\n<td>0.36<\/td>\n<td>0.46<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Beta<\/td>\n<td><b>0.97<\/b><\/td>\n<td>1.19<\/td>\n<td>1.17<\/td>\n<td>1.14<\/td>\n<td>1.11<\/td>\n<td>1.07<\/td>\n<td>1.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td># of Stocks<\/td>\n<td>851<\/td>\n<td>1363<\/td>\n<td>1924<\/td>\n<td>400<\/td>\n<td>100<\/td>\n<td>500<\/td>\n<td>503<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Undervalued by VE %<\/td>\n<td>50%<\/td>\n<td><b>75%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>72%<\/td>\n<td>50%<\/td>\n<td>33%<\/td>\n<td>40%<\/td>\n<td>40%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>P\/B Ratio<\/td>\n<td>2.3<\/td>\n<td><b>1.4<\/b><\/td>\n<td>2.0<\/td>\n<td>2.3<\/td>\n<td>6.2<\/td>\n<td>2.9<\/td>\n<td>3.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>P\/E Ratio<\/td>\n<td>16.4<\/td>\n<td>24.2<\/td>\n<td>30.5<\/td>\n<td><b>14.8<\/b><\/td>\n<td>27.0<\/td>\n<td>18.6<\/td>\n<td>19.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>P\/S Ratio<\/td>\n<td>6.1<\/td>\n<td><b>1.9<\/b><\/td>\n<td>5.3<\/td>\n<td>2.3<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<td>6.3<\/td>\n<td>6.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Div. Yield<\/td>\n<td>2.2%<\/td>\n<td>2.3%<\/td>\n<td>1.6%<\/td>\n<td>1.4%<\/td>\n<td>0.8%<\/td>\n<td>1.8%<\/td>\n<td>1.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Expense Ratio<\/td>\n<td>0.18%<\/td>\n<td>0.23%<\/td>\n<td>0.19%<\/td>\n<td>0.23%<\/td>\n<td>0.20%<\/td>\n<td>0.20%<\/td>\n<td><b>0.03%<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Largest Holding Pct.<\/td>\n<td>Exxon Mobil Corp <b>(XOM)<\/b><\/p>\n<p>2.6%<\/p>\n<p><b>VE2<\/b><\/td>\n<td>Agree Realty <b>(ADC) <\/b>0.6%<\/p>\n<p><b>VE3<\/b><\/td>\n<td>Shockwave Med <b>(SWAV)<\/b><\/p>\n<p>0.4%,<\/p>\n<p><b>VE1<\/b><\/td>\n<td>AXON Enterprise <b>(AXON)<\/b>,<\/p>\n<p>0.70%, <b>VE2<\/b><\/td>\n<td>Microsoft <b>(MSFT)<\/b><\/p>\n<p>12.6% <b>VE2<\/b><\/td>\n<td>Intel<\/p>\n<p><b>(INTC)<\/b><\/p>\n<p>0.24%<\/p>\n<p><b>VE1<\/b><\/td>\n<td>Apple <b>(AAPL)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>5.98%<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>VE3<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Index Provider<\/td>\n<td>FTSE Russell Indices<\/td>\n<td>FTSE Russell Indices<\/td>\n<td>FTSE Russell Indices<\/td>\n<td>S&amp;P Dow Jones<\/td>\n<td>Nasdaq<\/td>\n<td>S&amp;P Dow Jones<\/td>\n<td>S&amp;P Dow Jones<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>ETF Sponsor<\/td>\n<td>iShares by Blackrock<\/td>\n<td>iShares by Blackrock<\/td>\n<td>iShares by Blackrock<\/td>\n<td>SPDRs by SSgA<\/td>\n<td>Invesco<\/td>\n<td>Invesco<\/td>\n<td>SPDRs by SSgA<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Current ValuEngine reports on these stocks or ETFS can be viewed<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/rep\/mresearch_report\"><b> HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p><b>Standout Stocks from the ETFs Included in this Analysis:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>There is one <b>4-rated <\/b>(Buy) stock according to the ValuEngine model that is in the top-ten holdings of both <b>IWN <\/b>and <b>IWM. <\/b>This stock is RBC Bearings <b>(RBC).\u00a0 <\/b>RBC Bearings Incorporated manufactures and markets engineered precision bearings and components in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, Aerospace\/Defense and Industrial and is headquartered in Oxford, CT, having been incorporated in 1919.<\/p>\n<p>There is a <b>5-rated<\/b> (Strong Buy) stock in <b>IWM <\/b>that gets our top prediction for year-ahead performance,16.56%.\u00a0 This stock is Aspen Aerogels (<b>ASPN<\/b>). Aspen Aerogels, Inc. is an energy technology company that designs, develops and manufactures aerogel insulation used primarily in large-scale energy infrastructure facilities. The Company offers insulation for high temperature steam pipes, vessels, and equipment. Aspen serves petrochemical, refinery, industrial, and power generation sectors. It manufactures Cryogel (R), Pyrogel (R) and Spaceloft (R) products.\u00a0 The firm was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Northborough, MA.<\/p>\n<p>Another <b>5-rated <\/b>(Strong Buy) stock that we also project a 16% gain is Enviva Corp, <b>EVA, <\/b>The firm produces, processes, and sells utility-grade wood pellets. The company&#8217;s products are used as a substitute for coal in power generation, and combined heat and power plants<b>.\u00a0 <\/b>Enviva Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.<\/p>\n<p>The highest market cap company in <b>IWM <\/b>that is rated <b>5 <\/b>(strong buy) and pays a dividend is probably the most familiar name in the group, Kemper Corp (<b>KMPR<\/b>). It is a diversified US insurance holding company that engages in the provision of insurance products to three segments: Specialty Property &amp; Casualty Insurance, Preferred Property &amp; Casualty Insurance, and Life &amp; Health Insurance. The company was formerly known as Unitrin, Inc. and changed its name to Kemper Corporation in August 2011. Kemper Corporation was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.<\/p>\n<p>This table presents a look at the data behind these stocks.\u00a0 The iShares <b>Russell 2000 <\/b>Small Cap ETF (IWM) is used for comparison and benchmarking purposes.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>&nbsp;<\/td>\n<td><b>RBC<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>ASPN<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>EVA<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>KMPR<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>IWM<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Market Index Being Tracked<\/td>\n<td><b>RBC Bearings<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Aspen Aerogels<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Enviva Inc.<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Kemper Corp.<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Market Cap, (Bllns.)<\/td>\n<td><b>6.41<\/b><\/td>\n<td>0.44<\/td>\n<td>1.56<\/td>\n<td>3.36<\/td>\n<td>2.97 (Mkt-Weighted Avg. Holding)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>ValuEngine Rating<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>4<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>5<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>5<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>5<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>4<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>VE Forecast 3-mo. Price Return<\/b><\/td>\n<td>+3.28%<\/td>\n<td>+1.62%<\/td>\n<td>+0.68%<\/td>\n<td><b>+4.84%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>+0.62%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>VE Forecast 6-Mo. Price Return<\/b><\/td>\n<td>+3.38%<\/td>\n<td>+1.89%<\/td>\n<td>+0.14%<\/td>\n<td><b>+6.58%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>+3.02%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><b>VE Forecast 1-yr. Price Return<\/b><\/td>\n<td>+6.84%<\/td>\n<td><b>+16.56%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>+16.24%<\/td>\n<td>+14.46%<\/td>\n<td>-0.28%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Last mo. Price Return<\/td>\n<td><b>+1.61%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>-34.43%<\/td>\n<td>-24.80%<\/td>\n<td>-9.38%<\/td>\n<td>-7.85%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Last 3 mo. Price Return<\/td>\n<td><b>-2.20%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>-38.14%<\/td>\n<td>-54.17%<\/td>\n<td>-5.79%<\/td>\n<td>-2.08%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Last 6 mo. Price Return<\/td>\n<td>+1.28%<\/td>\n<td>-35.33%<\/td>\n<td>-35.33%<\/td>\n<td><b>+17.68%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>+0.10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Historic 1-Yr. Price Return<\/td>\n<td>+19.38%<\/td>\n<td>-79.27%<\/td>\n<td>-73.28%<\/td>\n<td>-4.83%<\/td>\n<td>-13.10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Historic 5-Yr Ann. Price Return<\/td>\n<td>+12.56%<\/td>\n<td>+11.13%<\/td>\n<td>+1.05%<\/td>\n<td>-0.84%<\/td>\n<td>+0.10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Volatility<\/td>\n<td>39.8%<\/td>\n<td>77.7%<\/td>\n<td>38.4%<\/td>\n<td>35.4%<\/td>\n<td>24.46%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Sharpe Ratio<\/td>\n<td><b>0.32<\/b><\/td>\n<td>0.14<\/td>\n<td>0.03<\/td>\n<td>-0.02<\/td>\n<td>0.13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Beta<\/td>\n<td>1.42<\/td>\n<td>2.24<\/td>\n<td>1.00<\/td>\n<td>0.89<\/td>\n<td>1.17<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>22.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Undervaluation Percentile<\/td>\n<td>66<\/td>\n<td>90<\/td>\n<td>73<\/td>\n<td>39<\/td>\n<td>72*<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td>0.36<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>P\/B Ratio<\/td>\n<td>2.5<\/td>\n<td><b>1.1<\/b><\/td>\n<td>8.7<\/td>\n<td>2.9<\/td>\n<td>2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>P\/E Ratio<\/td>\n<td>31.5<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<td>30.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>PEG Ratio<\/td>\n<td>1.1<\/td>\n<td>0.1<\/td>\n<td><b>0.1<\/b><\/td>\n<td>0.1<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>P\/S Ratio<\/td>\n<td>4.4<\/td>\n<td>2.6<\/td>\n<td>1.5<\/td>\n<td>0.6<\/td>\n<td>5.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Div. Yield<\/td>\n<td>0.0%<\/td>\n<td>0.0%<\/td>\n<td>15.4%<\/td>\n<td>2.4%<\/td>\n<td>1.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Current ValuEngine reports on these stocks or ETFS can be viewed<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/rep\/mresearch_report\"><b> HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p><b>Analysis of Featured Stocks:<\/b><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">RBC Bearings (<b>RBC), <\/b>the largest of the four stocks, has been the only consistently positive performer.\u00a0 It is considered undervalued in comparison to 2\/3 of the ValuEngine Universe due to continued strong expected earnings growth even though its Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-Book ratios are slightly higher than small cap benchmark <b>IWM.\u00a0 <\/b>Using a baseball analogy and with a forecast of 8% growth compared with 14% -16% for the other three, <b>RBC <\/b>is more of \u201ca doubles bet\u201d for price appreciation while the other three are \u201cswinging for the fences.\u201d That said, there is no substitute for doing one\u2019s own analysis before investing.<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">Kemper Corp. <b>(KMPR)<\/b> has the best projected intermediate price appreciation. It also combines a healthy 2.4% dividend with a low Beta and has relatively low price volatility.\u00a0 It is not undervalued by our valuation model and has a high price-to-book ratio relative to other small cap stocks.\u00a0 The insurance industry is very tricky to analyze so it is especially important to take a deeper dive before contemplating investment action.<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">Enviva (<b>EVA<\/b>) is a small-cap stock currently paying a 15.4% yield and with high projected earnings growth.\u00a0 How much longer the stock pays the dividend will probably depend upon earnings expectations as it has been hammered in the market, losing 73% over the past 12 months, sending current implied dividend yield skyrocketing.\u00a0 It has a low Beta for a small cap stock.\u00a0 Even though our valuation model finds it more undervalued than almost three-quarters of our universe and attractive on a price-to-sales and price-to-earnings-growth basis, <b>EVA <\/b>has a very high 8.7 price-to-book ratio.\u00a0 In contrast to <b>RBC, <\/b>investing in <b>EVA <\/b>now is a \u201cswing for the fences home run\u201d bet on a stock that has been beaten down.<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">Aspen Aerogels (<b>ASPN) <\/b>has a statistical profile very similar to <b>EVA <\/b>with even higher implied risk and no dividend<b>.\u00a0 <\/b>It has the highest projected upside by our forecast model but has been even more beaten down by the market during the past year for what appears to be earnings-specific reasons.\u00a0 It is by far the most volatile and market-price-sensitive stock of the quartet with a Beta of 2.24 and price volatility of 77.7%.<\/li>\n<li>As a strong ETF advocate both professionally and personally, I note that <b>IWM <\/b>is also rated as a <b>4 <\/b>(Buy) by ValuEngine\u2019s models and most of its stocks are undervalued according to our valuation model.\u00a0 All four stock opportunities profiled above are part of <b>IWM.\u00a0 I<\/b>ts upside potential is less than with individual stocks, and small cap index ETFs are generally more volatile than ETFs representing the S&amp;P 500 Index.\u00a0 Nevertheless, the diversification afforded by a 2000-stock ETF reduces the risk of huge drawdowns markedly as compared with buying a handful of individual stocks.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine research available:<\/b><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuenginecapital.com\/\"><b>www.ValuEngineCapital.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p><b>Size\/Segment ETF Analysis and Summary:<\/b><\/p>\n<p>In 2022, indexed ETFs that comprised value stocks, especially those with low volatility and an income tilt, fared better than large-cap growth ETFs.\u00a0 The first 15 weeks of 2023 not only reversed the direction of the market, but the hierarchy as well.\u00a0 <b>QQQ, <\/b>the Nasdaq-100 ETF, is off to a torrid start. Most ETFs with big positions in large-cap tech stocks are right behind it.\u00a0 Part of this may be that these ETFs had the most 2022 losses to recover. Some of it may be renewed confidence by growth investors created partially by the artificial-intelligence fascination spurred on by the advent of ChatGPT.\u00a0 No one knows how long the current trend will last, but in the past month it seems to be gaining even more momentum and exponentially increasing the gap between large-cap growth and other segments.\u00a0 Our models are not advocating <b>QQQ <\/b>as a timely 12-month investment, however.\u00a0 It gets our lowest rating <b>1 <\/b>(Strong Sell) for price performance and two-thirds of its stocks are rated by ValuEngine as overvalued.<\/p>\n<p>The ValuEngine models indicate that within the next 12-months that hierarchy will be reversed again, wiping out that gap altogether.\u00a0 The iShares Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF (<b>IWM<\/b>) and the iShares Russell 1000 Large\/MidCap Value ETF (<b>IWD<\/b>) have many more attractive and undervalued opportunities now to go along with <b>4 <\/b>(Buy) ratings.\u00a0 The iShares Russell 2000 Small Cap Value ETF (<b>IWN<\/b>), has a rating of 4 (Buy).\u00a0 The magnitude of differentiation among the market segment ETFs is easily the greatest during the several years that I have been with ValuEngine. Therefore, the models indicate extraordinary <b>potential <\/b>for opportunity on both ends of the market. Still, all models, even ValuEngine\u2019s, could be too early or meet other problems as data changes.\u00a0 Market aphorisms such as \u201cDon\u2019t try to catch a falling knife\u201d and \u201cdon\u2019t fight the tape\u201d exist for good reasons.\u00a0 Timing is everything.<\/p>\n<p>_______________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n<h5><b>By Herbert Blank<\/b><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Senior Quantitative Analyst, ValuEngine Inc<\/b><\/h5>\n<h5><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\"><b>www.ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5><b>support@ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/h5>\n<h5><b>All of the approximately 5,000 stocks, 16 sector groups, 140 industries, and 600 ETFs have been updated on<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\"><b> www.ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine research available through<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuenginecapital.com\/\"><b> ValuEngine Capital Management, LLC<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Free Two Week Trial to all 5,000 plus equities covered by ValuEngine<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/pub\/VeSubscribeInfo?pid=1\"><b> HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p><b>Subscribers log in<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/ve\/mainve?pid=1\"> <b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In January, we published \u201cRotating Regimes \u2013 What to Plan For in 2023.\u201d At that time, we recounted that the 2022 US Stock Market was a conflagration that wiped out almost everything in its path with the exception of a few industries and ETFs. At that time, we reported that two Benchmark ETFs we track, &#8230; <a title=\"Large-Cap Growth Rampage Could Be Creating Small-Cap Value Opportunities\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/large-cap-growth-rampage-could-be-creating-small-cap-value-opportunities\/\" aria-label=\"More on Large-Cap Growth Rampage Could Be Creating Small-Cap Value Opportunities\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[130,1,39],"tags":[2192,2189,1760,1761,1719,2190,1753,1731,1770,1845,1834,2188,2191,1833,1617,1938,802,1858,1699,1687,1656,1659,63],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3115"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3115"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3115\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3116,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3115\/revisions\/3116"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3115"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3115"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}