{"id":3370,"date":"2024-08-30T03:08:26","date_gmt":"2024-08-30T03:08:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/?p=3370"},"modified":"2024-11-07T03:56:01","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T03:56:01","slug":"explosive-active-etf-growth-reaches-a-new-milestone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/explosive-active-etf-growth-reaches-a-new-milestone\/","title":{"rendered":"Explosive Active ETF Growth Reaches a New Milestone"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since 2021, actively managed ETFs have enjoyed the highest percentage growth of any ETF category.\u00a0 Coupled with the huge decline in traditionally structured mutual funds in the same period, it is understandable that these active mutual fund managers who once shunned ETFs as a fad are now offering ETFs and\/or converting existing funds to ETFs.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>All 5,000 stocks, 16 sector groups, 140 industries, and 500 ETFs have been updated:<\/b><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Two-week free trial:<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\"><b> www.ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Active ETFs listed globally reached a new milestone in July, with assets under management climbing to $974.3 billion, according to a recent report\u00a0from London-based ETFGI, an independent research and consultancy firm. The record-breaking figure represents a 32% increase in assets year-to-date, up from $739.9 billion at the end of 2023. In July, actively managed ETFs gathered net inflows of $35.9 billion, bringing year-to-date net inflows to $189.9 billion. It marks the highest year-to-date inflow on record, surpassing the previous high of $86.1 billion set in 2023, ETFGI said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although the preponderance of ETF assets remains in rules-based index funds, active ETFs&#8217; assets have grown at a faster rate. As the last two decades have passed, financial advisors and financial planners have become more aware of the many structural advantages that portfolios using the ETFs structure have over traditional mutual funds. They are also cognizant of the lower fees and greater transparency that are generally characteristic of ETFs.\u00a0 Many of the assets that have flowed into ETFs have been taken out of traditional funds.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A number of well-known fund families such as American Century and Capital Group began migrating to ETFs for defensive reasons but quickly found other advantages. More recently traditional fund complexes, especially those that have suffered a decline in assets under management (AUM), have come to the realization that the costs in providing ETFs are actually much lower than operating traditional funds. This is contrary to previous conventional wisdom.\u00a0 Transfer agency issues all but disappear and portfolio management functions are greatly simplified.\u00a0 Putting cash to work, cash management and tax-related redemption decisions are virtually eliminated.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The ETF wrapper comes with benefits for active investment strategies:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Tax efficiency.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0Mutual funds must buy or sell holdings to cover inflows or redemptions. ETF managers can exchange shares for underlying holdings, and vice versa, without creating a taxable event.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Low expense ratios.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0Active ETFs don\u2019t have sales loads or 12b-1 fees. Their average fee (0.65%) is 36% cheaper than that of the\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">average active mutual fund<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Flexible trading.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0Investors can buy or sell active ETFs throughout the trading day. They also can go long, sell short, buy on margin, trade options, and lend to others for a fee.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>No cash drag. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The traditional mutual fund structure requires ETFs to keep some of its assets in cash for daily redemptions.\u00a0 Investors buying and selling an ETF on exchanges do not affect the assets held by the ETF.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Selling decisions do not have to take embedded capital gains into account. <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since most ETFs do not trade securities on the exchange, there are no embedded capital gains.\u00a0 Traditionally, mutual funds would liquidate shares for redemptions by choosing positions with the most embedded capital gains even though these may represent her\/his newest ideas.\u00a0 ETFs allow managers to make selling decisions strictly on investment considerations.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For a full rundown of the many advantages of the ETF structure versus the antiquated redeem-at-distributor mutual fund, see my paper in ValuEngine\u2019s research library at <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ww2.valuengine.com\/research-library\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">https:\/\/ww2.valuengine.com\/research-library\/<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> .<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This chart illustrates the dramatic shift of mutual fund assets to ETFs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3371 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Annual-Net-Flows-bar-chart.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"810\" height=\"468\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another recent development has seen ETF issuers customize funds to meet specialized needs, leading to a wider range of products that draw flows.\u00a0 Managed \u201cbuffered\u201d ETFs, geared to limit downside losses, have become increasingly popular.\u00a0 Market uncertainty is also helping, he said.\u00a0 There is a belief in the market that passive ETFs tend to outperform in stable markets, whereas active management can outperform in volatile, uncertain market conditions.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This chart illustrates the exponential growth of active ETFs.\u00a0 Note the dramatic rise in the slope of the curve in just the past three years.\u00a0 Globally, the number of active ETFs now tops 1200.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3372 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Number-of-Active-ETFs-chart.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"439\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As of August 23, 2024, 772 active US ETFs were listed on US exchanges.\u00a0 Although that still is less than 30% the number of more than 3,100 index-based ETFs, that number has grown substantially from the 32 listed in 2019.\u00a0 Here is the breakdown by category of active ETFs.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Equities <\/b> <b>474<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Bonds:<\/b> <b>217<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Alternatives:<\/b> <b>\u00a0 19<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Commodities:<\/b> <b>\u00a0 12*<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Currency (incl. crypto)<\/b> <b>\u00a0 10<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Multi-Asset<\/b> <b>\u00a0 <\/b> <b>\u00a0 33<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Preferred Stock <\/b> <b>\u00a0 \u00a0 4<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><b>Real Estate <\/b> <b> \u00a0 <\/b> <b>\u00a0 \u00a0 3<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The obvious next question is who is issuing these popular ETFs.\u00a0 Let\u2019s start with equities.\u00a0 This table shows many comparative details for the top 22 equity ETFs.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Current ValuEngine reports on all covered stocks and ETFS can be viewed<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/rep\/mresearch_report\"><b> HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3384\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/15-active-ETFs-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"857\" height=\"776\" \/><\/h5>\n<h5><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3383\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/15-active-ETFs-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"858\" height=\"173\" \/><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Current ValuEngine reports on all covered stocks and ETFS can be viewed<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/rep\/mresearch_report\"><b> HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The number 15 was chosen to include the ARK Innovation ETF (<\/span><b>ARKK<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">), the ETF that established the legitimacy of the category.\u00a0 In 2014, when <\/span><b>ARKK <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">was established, the few ETFs in this category were all issued by small firms such as Davis Capital and Trim Tabs Asset Management that had niche followings.\u00a0 Only one had more than $100 million and most of the veterans in the industry laughed at the notion of active ETFs ever gaining traction.\u00a0 <\/span><b>ARKK<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> boasted superior research into below-the-radar innovative companies that manifested itself into superior performance.\u00a0 After five consecutive years of outstanding performance, <\/span><b>ARKK<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> became internationally noticed along with Founder and CEO Catherine Wood.\u00a0 This drew attention to both active ETFs and the types of innovative technology stocks that were <\/span><b>ARKK<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2019s bailiwick.\u00a0 The latter led to increased competition for a small number of midcap stocks that eventually were overbought and the fund\u2019s returns reversed from top decile to bottom quartile.\u00a0 Nevertheless, the impact that <\/span><b>ARKK<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> had on the industry should not be forgotten.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Funds 1-21 on the list are all from much larger multinational firms.\u00a0 In fact, four institutionally oriented issuers account for all of them.\u00a0 The four issuers are: JP Morgan, Dimensional Fund Advisors, Avantis and Capital Group.\u00a0 One major difference is that the two JP Morgan funds are oriented toward superior income and avoiding large capital losses while the other funds are all oriented primarily for capital appreciation.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One growth-oriented equity ETF that makes for a good comparison with ARKK is the Capital Group Growth ETF (<\/span><b>CGGR<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">). Let\u2019s take a look at part of the first page of the ValuEngine report for each ETF.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3377 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/ARKK-pages.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"766\" height=\"467\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The black lines in the graph represent each ETFs performance during the past 12 months.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The red line is the S&amp;P 500.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The green line is the DJIA.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The blue line is the Nasdaq-100.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Current ValuEngine reports on all covered stocks and ETFS can be viewed<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/rep\/mresearch_report\"><b> HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p><b>CGGR<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> managed to outperform the S&amp;P 500, no easy feat this year, while easily beating the Dow Jones and just slightly underperforming the high-flying Nasdaq.\u00a0 Conversely, <\/span><b>ARKK <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">badly under performed all of the indexes and <\/span><b>CGGR <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">by posting a negative return<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">on a 3-year basis. <\/span><b>ARKK<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, as shown in the original table of ETFs, had an expense ratio close to double that of <\/span><b>CGGR<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, 0.75% as compared with 0.39%.\u00a0 Looking backwards, <\/span><b>CGGR <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">had been the much better selection.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The ValuEngine ranking system, alternatively, looks forward not backwards.\u00a0 <\/span><b>CGGR <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">is expected by our predictive model to outperform the average ValuEngine ETF.\u00a0 We rate it a buy with a <\/span><b>4 <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">rating while the average rating is a 3.\u00a0 <\/span><b>ARKK<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, however, is preferred more by the predictive models as a Strong Buy with the top rating of <\/span><b>5.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The second page of each report provides more material for direct comparisons between <\/span><b>CGGR<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><b>ARKK.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b> <img loading=\"lazy\" class=\" wp-image-3378 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/cggr-vs-arkk-pages.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"651\" height=\"356\" \/>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One insight from this comparison is that when looking at the top ten holdings, the two ETFs only have one stock in common, Tesla (<\/span><b>TSLA) <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">which is rated as a Sell with a <\/span><b>2 <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">rating. On the other hand <\/span><b>ARKK <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">also contains two <\/span><b>5<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">-rated strong buy stocks in its top ten holdings; Block Inc. (<\/span><b>SQ) <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">and Robin Hood Finance (<\/span><b>HOOD). <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0Beyond that, our valuation model finds that <\/span><b>CGGR <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">has a higher concentration of overvalued stocks.\u00a0 66% or 69\/104 of <\/span><b>CGGR<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2019s stocks are overvalued according to our valuation model, while only 28%, 10\/35, of <\/span><b>ARKK<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2019s stocks are overvalued by the same measure.\u00a0 So, although <\/span><b>ARKK <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">has taken a beating during the past 5 years, our valuation model and our predictive models both rank it as relatively superior to most other ETFs.\u00a0 If our models are correct, a major rebound could be forthcoming.<\/span><\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine research available:\u00a0 <\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuenginecapital.com\/\"><b>www.ValuEngineCapital.com<\/b><\/a><b>\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In conclusion, there are three major issues with actively managed ETFs as they continue to proliferate with more firms gravitating to the more efficient structure.\u00a0 The first issue is whether it makes sense to choose active management at all when most mutual fund managers have underperformed significantly using the old structure.\u00a0 The answer to that is that it does make sense as long as there are people who feel that active manager oversight has a better chance of navigating stormy investment seas than a top-heavy robotic index weighted primarily according to cash flows.\u00a0 Second, even if they can perform more in line with the indexes using the more efficient ETF structure, does it make sense to pay up to a 0.75% fee for at best an even chance to outperform when you can buy the Vanguard Total Market ETF (<\/span><b>VTI<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">) for 0.03%.\u00a0 <\/span><b>VTI <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">also has tighter spreads and superior liquidity to just about any active ETF listed on US exchanges.\u00a0 Third, when will a \u201ctipping point\u201d occur when actively managed funds in the traditional structure all migrate or are replaced by mutual funds using the ETF structure?\u00a0 I do not have an answer for that.\u00a0 As long as the 401K market uses traditional mutual funds almost exclusively, these funds will continue to exist perhaps for 15-or-more years. But only the top marketers and top performers are likely to survive in this author\u2019s opinion.\u00a0 There isn\u2019t a lot of room in the market for mutual fund complexes that continue to hemorrhage assets under management.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>_______________________________________________________________<\/b><\/p>\n<h5><b>By Herbert Blank<\/b><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Senior Quantitative Analyst, ValuEngine Inc<\/b><\/h5>\n<h5><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\"><b>www.ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5><b>support@ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/h5>\n<h5><b>All of the over 5,000 stocks, 16 sector groups, over 250 industries, and 600 ETFs have been updated on<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\"><b> www.ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine research available through<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuenginecapital.com\/\"><b> ValuEngine Capital Management, LLC<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Free Two-Week Trial to all 5,000 plus equities covered by ValuEngine<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/pub\/VeSubscribeInfo?pid=1\"><b> HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p><b>Subscribers log in <\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/ve\/mainve?pid=1\"><b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since 2021, actively managed ETFs have enjoyed the highest percentage growth of any ETF category.\u00a0 Coupled with the huge decline in traditionally structured mutual funds in the same period, it is understandable that these active mutual fund managers who once shunned ETFs as a fad are now offering ETFs and\/or converting existing funds to ETFs. &#8230; <a title=\"Explosive Active ETF Growth Reaches a New Milestone\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/explosive-active-etf-growth-reaches-a-new-milestone\/\" aria-label=\"More on Explosive Active ETF Growth Reaches a New Milestone\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[130,1,39],"tags":[1755,2374,2368,2371,2364,2366,2373,2370,2376,2372,2369,2375,1757,2365,2038,2367,1080,402],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3370"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3370"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3370\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3386,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3370\/revisions\/3386"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3370"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3370"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3370"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}