{"id":3793,"date":"2026-01-21T23:05:22","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T23:05:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/?p=3793"},"modified":"2026-01-21T23:12:57","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T23:12:57","slug":"2025-etf-wrap-up-what-to-expect-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/2025-etf-wrap-up-what-to-expect-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 ETF Wrap-Up &#038; What to Expect in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Typically, the first full blog of the year reviews returns of benchmark index ETFs and opines on what prevailed in the past year through five years, then provides analysis that could provide insights into the future for US equities and other asset classes.\u00a0 This year is no different in that respect.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine\u2019s research models:<a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuenginecapital.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> www.ValuEngineCapital.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The first table focuses on US equity ETFs.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Ticker<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>ETF<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>VE Rating<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Assets ($B)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>2025 Return<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>5 Year Returns<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>1 Year FF<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>ER<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Div Yield %<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>VOO<\/td>\n<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td><b> $839\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n<td>17.82%<\/td>\n<td>14.53%<\/td>\n<td><b>$136,094.72\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>0.03%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>1.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>RSP<\/td>\n<td>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>$76<\/td>\n<td>11.21%<\/td>\n<td>10.25%<\/td>\n<td>($3,230.53)<\/td>\n<td>0.20%<\/td>\n<td>1.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>VTI<\/td>\n<td>Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>$575<\/td>\n<td>17.10%<\/td>\n<td>13.18%<\/td>\n<td>$38,358.72<\/td>\n<td><b>0.03%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>1.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>QQQ<\/td>\n<td>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (Nasdaq-100)<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>$411<\/td>\n<td><b>20.77%<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>15.13%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>$21,722.15<\/td>\n<td>0.18*%<\/td>\n<td>0.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>VUG<\/td>\n<td>Vanguard Growth ETF<\/td>\n<td>4<\/td>\n<td>$205<\/td>\n<td>19.40%<\/td>\n<td>14.68%<\/td>\n<td>$16,414.58<\/td>\n<td>0.04%<\/td>\n<td>0.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>VTV<\/td>\n<td>Vanguard Value ETF<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>$159<\/td>\n<td>15.27%<\/td>\n<td>12.80%<\/td>\n<td>$12,032.09<\/td>\n<td>0.04%<\/td>\n<td>2.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>VYM<\/td>\n<td>Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>$69<\/td>\n<td>15.42%<\/td>\n<td>12.88%<\/td>\n<td>$1,890.92<\/td>\n<td>0.06%<\/td>\n<td><b>2.4%<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>MDY<\/td>\n<td>SPDR S&amp;P Midcap 400 ETF Trust<\/td>\n<td>3<\/td>\n<td>$24<\/td>\n<td>7.19%<\/td>\n<td>8.86%<\/td>\n<td>($1,551.14)<\/td>\n<td>0.24%<\/td>\n<td>1.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>IWM<\/td>\n<td>iShares Russell 2000 ETF (Small Cap)<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>$74<\/td>\n<td>12.66%<\/td>\n<td>5.91%<\/td>\n<td>($4,641.11)<\/td>\n<td>0.19%<\/td>\n<td>1.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>NOBL<\/td>\n<td>ProShares S&amp;P 500 Div. Aristocrats ETF<\/td>\n<td>2<\/td>\n<td>$11<\/td>\n<td>6.84%<\/td>\n<td>7.81%<\/td>\n<td>($1,139.90)<\/td>\n<td>0.35%<\/td>\n<td>2.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Footnote: <b>QQQ <\/b>changed its structure in December from trustee driven into a true ETF run by a portfolio manager.\u00a0 This provides increased operational efficiency and exposure to additional income streams which in turn allowed them to lower their expense ratio from 0.20% to 0.18%<b>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">All research 5,000+ stocks and 700+ ETFs updated on<a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> www.ValuEngine.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Despite dire predictions in January by many economists and sell-side strategists concerned with tariffs, a falling dollar, mega-tech concentration in index funds and other projected trends, 2025 was a great year for equity performance.\u00a0 For the third straight year, <b>QQQ (<\/b>the Invesco QQQ Trust) was the top performing ETF in the above list with a robust 20.8% gain. It outgained the 17.8% increase posted by Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (<b>VOO<\/b>) by more than 300 basis points.\u00a0 In keeping with four prevalent trends since the beginning of 2010:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">Growth outperformed value.\u00a0 The Vanguard Growth ETF (<b>VUG<\/b>) returned 19.4% while the Vanguard Value ETF (<b>VTV<\/b>) gained 15.3% or 410 basis points less.<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">Market-cap weighting increased returns substantially for the same 500 stocks as Invesco Equal-Weighted S&amp;P 500 ETF (<b>RSP<\/b>) gained just 11.2%.\u00a0 The large differential between <b>VOO <\/b>and <b>RSP <\/b>for the 5-year annualized period demonstrates that this year\u2019s differential was no fluke.<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">Large cap stock index ETFs substantially outperformed their small cap counterparts.\u00a0 The iShares Russell 3000 ETF\u2019s (<b>IWM<\/b>) was just 12.7%. Counterintuitively, our midcap ETF benchmark, SPDR S&amp;P Midcap 400 ETF Trust (<b>MDY<\/b>) fared considerably worse with a 7.2% return for the year.<\/li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">The worst performer among the group of US equity asset class ETFs we track was the ProShares S&amp;P 500 Dividend Aristocrats (<b>NOBL<\/b>) with 6.8%.\u00a0 These are the companies that have raised their dividends every year for at least the past 10 years.\u00a0 The index was designed not to maximize dividend yield but to mitigate volatility with consistency.\u00a0 Such stocks used to be called \u201cblue chips.\u201d\u00a0 Since the strategy was designed to lower market risk, it participated much less in this century\u2019s strong US equity returns than the benchmark indexes.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u201cFF\u201d in the above table stands for fund flows and refers to the net new funds contributed to the ETFs at the distributor level. In keeping with a \u201cfollow the money\u201d strategy, the four worst performers last year experienced net outflows while the top performing funds received huge net inflows.<\/p>\n<p>With respect to 2025 returns, will 2026 be substantially different with regard to the four trends above? Many strategists think so and have some data trends to back up their assertions. Our July blog review of the first half of 2025 showed a 700-basis point difference in return between <b>QQQ <\/b>and <b>VOO<\/b>.\u00a0 This margin was halved by year-end.\u00a0 There was a notable fourth quarter trend to reduce exposure to a potential \u201cAI crash\u201d by rotating toward stocks with more reasonable valuations.\u00a0 Moreover, the first two mixed-return weeks of 2026 provided more evidence that the fourth-quarter trend may continue. Value ETF <b>VTV <\/b>has gained 3% while its growth counterpart <b>VUG <\/b>is down 0.3% on the year.\u00a0 Small-cap <b>IWM <\/b>has gained 6.8%, much better than S&amp;P 500 proxy\u00a0 <b>VOO<\/b>.\u00a0 The latter has risen just 1.2% year-to-date. Thus far our models do not agree as can be seen by the ratings in the table.\u00a0 That said, our models are adaptive and dynamic. Specifically, if earnings and\/or earnings forecasts drop for the stock leadership driving <b>QQQ <\/b>and <b>VUG<\/b>, their ratings from our models may drop, perhaps substantially.\u00a0 Since estimates have not yet been revised downward and perhaps will not be, we believe that <b>QQQ <\/b>and <b>VUG <\/b>will continue to outperform. Our ratings are data-driven.<\/p>\n<p>In this blog, we also track index ETFs and ETVs for non-US equities, US fixed income, precious metals, commodities, and bitcoin even though none of these asset classes are rated by our models.\u00a0 The results this year were eye-opening.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Current ValuEngine reports on all covered stocks and ETFS can be viewed<a href=\"https:\/\/valuengine.com\/dashboard\/report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><b>Ticker<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>ETF<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Assets ($B)<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>2025 Return<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>5 Year Returns<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>1 Year FF<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>ER<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>Div Yield %<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EFA<\/td>\n<td>iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (Developed Market Equities)<\/td>\n<td>$ 71<\/td>\n<td>31.54%<\/td>\n<td>8.82%<\/td>\n<td>$2,823.63<\/td>\n<td>0.32%<\/td>\n<td>3.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EEM<\/td>\n<td>iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF<\/td>\n<td>$ 21<\/td>\n<td>33.97%<\/td>\n<td>3.53%<\/td>\n<td>($674.99)<\/td>\n<td>0.72%<\/td>\n<td>2.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>AGG<\/td>\n<td>iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF<\/td>\n<td>$136<\/td>\n<td>7.19%<\/td>\n<td>-0.38%<\/td>\n<td>$11,863.96<\/td>\n<td><b>0.03%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>3.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>SGOV<\/td>\n<td>iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF<\/td>\n<td>$ 69<\/td>\n<td>4.24%<\/td>\n<td>3.23%<\/td>\n<td><b>$38,922.71<\/b><\/td>\n<td>0.09%<\/td>\n<td><b>4.1%<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>IAU<\/td>\n<td>iShares Gold Trust (ETV)<\/td>\n<td>$69<\/td>\n<td>63.95%<\/td>\n<td>17.59%<\/td>\n<td>$11,158.19<\/td>\n<td>0.25%<\/td>\n<td>0.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>SLV<\/td>\n<td>iShares Silver Trust (ETV)<\/td>\n<td>$40<\/td>\n<td><b>144.66%<\/b><\/td>\n<td><b>21.08%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>$3,385.72<\/td>\n<td>0.50%<\/td>\n<td>0.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>GSG<\/td>\n<td>iShares S&amp;P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (ETV)<\/td>\n<td>$1<\/td>\n<td>5.93%<\/td>\n<td>13.54%<\/td>\n<td>$57.16<\/td>\n<td>0.75%<\/td>\n<td>0.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>IBIT<\/td>\n<td>iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (ETV)<\/td>\n<td>$68<\/td>\n<td>-6.41%<\/td>\n<td>N\/A<\/td>\n<td>$24,919.87<\/td>\n<td>0.12%<\/td>\n<td>0.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Current ValuEngine reports on all covered stocks and ETFS can be viewed<a href=\"https:\/\/valuengine.com\/dashboard\/report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The most striking numbers on the table are the huge returns posted by the two precious metal ETVs (Exchange-Traded Vehicles, specifically grantor trusts, not mutual funds). The 145% gained by silver and 64% gained by gold were all-time highs for these ETVs. These gains reflected, although not precisely tracked, similarly outsized gains in spot prices for these metals.\u00a0 Spot silver had never risen this much in one year before.\u00a0 Spot gold hadn\u2019t risen this far in US dollar terms since 1930.\u00a0 While the return propelled iShares Silver Trust <b>SLV<\/b> into the 5-year annualized lead, iShares Gold Trust <b>IAU<\/b> has led <b>SLV <\/b>since the latter\u2019s 2006 inception.\u00a0 More impressively, <b>IAU <\/b>now leads <b>VOO <\/b>by more than 300 basis points since its inception in 2003. Interestingly, although precious metals comprise a significant portion of the S&amp;P GSCI Commodities Index, its grantor trust <b>GSG <\/b>did not have a strong year, gaining just 5.9%. The huge decline in oil prices, a larger component of the GSCI had a lot to do with that result.<\/p>\n<p>Turning back to the two more conventional asset classes, there is a trend that bucked recent history heading into 2025.\u00a0 As well as US Stocks performed this year, foreign stock benchmark index ETFs posted larger gains.\u00a0 Emerging markets ETF <b>EEM <\/b>nearly doubled the return of <b>VOO <\/b>and foreign developed markets ETF <b>EFA <\/b>was not far behind and was also well ahead of <b>QQQ. \u00a0 <\/b>The falling of the dollar relative to other currencies is the main culprit.<\/p>\n<p>Fixed income returns were less surprising even though they also bucked recent trends with <b>AGG <\/b>gaining nearly 75% more than <b>SGOV <\/b>as the US yield curve went positive.<\/p>\n<p>While <b>VOO<\/b>, as usual, received the highest net volume of fund flows, Short-term ETFs led by <b>SGOV<\/b> received the most inflows among fixed income benchmark ETFs and more net inflows than <b>QQQ.\u00a0 <\/b>Relative to their asset levels, gold as measured by <b>IAU<\/b> and Silver (<b>SLV<\/b>) received an even greater percentage of inflows.<b>\u00a0 <\/b>For many investors, <i>safety<\/i> and diversification away from equity concentration risk were premium goals despite the well-above-average returns posted by most equity ETFs.<\/p>\n<p>No review is complete without including the 11 State Street Select Sector SPDRs.\u00a0 This year, we added three of the largest subsectors we found most interesting in 2025.\u00a0 Here is the 2025 year-end review for the 11 subsectors and three subsectors.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Ticker<\/td>\n<td>ETF<\/td>\n<td>Assets ($Mil.)<\/td>\n<td>1 Year Return<\/td>\n<td>5 Year Return<\/td>\n<td>1 Year FF<\/p>\n<p>(Fund Flows)<\/td>\n<td>ER<\/td>\n<td>Div Yield %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XME<\/td>\n<td>State Street SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF<\/td>\n<td>$3,447<\/td>\n<td><b><i>83.47%<\/i><\/b><\/td>\n<td><b><i>26.60%<\/i><\/b><\/td>\n<td>$566.13<\/td>\n<td>0.35%<\/td>\n<td>0.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XAR<\/td>\n<td>State Street SPDR S&amp;P Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF<\/td>\n<td>$4,731<\/td>\n<td>46.15%<\/td>\n<td>16.83%<\/td>\n<td><i>$740.01\u00a0<\/i><\/td>\n<td>0.35%<\/td>\n<td>0.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XBI<\/td>\n<td>State Street SPDR S&amp;P Biotech ETF<\/td>\n<td>$7,834<\/td>\n<td>35.89%<\/td>\n<td>-3.18%<\/td>\n<td>($54.80)<\/td>\n<td>0.35%<\/td>\n<td>0.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XLK<\/td>\n<td>State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF<\/td>\n<td><b>$93,412\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n<td>24.52%<\/td>\n<td>18.17%<\/td>\n<td>$2,268.07<\/td>\n<td>0.08%<\/td>\n<td>0.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XLC<\/td>\n<td>State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF<\/td>\n<td>$27,283<\/td>\n<td>23.08%<\/td>\n<td>13.06%<\/td>\n<td>$2,308.70<\/td>\n<td>0.08%<\/td>\n<td>1.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XLI<\/td>\n<td>State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF<\/td>\n<td>$25,773<\/td>\n<td>19.34%<\/td>\n<td>13.70%<\/td>\n<td>$1,465.78<\/td>\n<td>0.08%<\/td>\n<td>1.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XLU<\/td>\n<td>State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF<\/td>\n<td>$21,900<\/td>\n<td>15.63%<\/td>\n<td>9.91%<\/td>\n<td><b>$3,248.23\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n<td>0.08%<\/td>\n<td>2.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XLF<\/td>\n<td>State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF<\/td>\n<td>$53,508<\/td>\n<td>14.90%<\/td>\n<td>15.44%<\/td>\n<td>($1,815.27)<\/td>\n<td>0.08%<\/td>\n<td>1.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XLV<\/td>\n<td>State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF<\/td>\n<td>$39,934<\/td>\n<td>14.50%<\/td>\n<td>8.35%<\/td>\n<td>($1,002.47)<\/td>\n<td>0.08%<\/td>\n<td>1.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XLB<\/td>\n<td>State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF<\/td>\n<td>$5,403<\/td>\n<td>9.68%<\/td>\n<td>6.74%<\/td>\n<td>($414.90)<\/td>\n<td>0.08%<\/td>\n<td>1.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XLE<\/td>\n<td>State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF<\/td>\n<td>$26,627<\/td>\n<td>7.41%<\/td>\n<td><b>22.99%<\/b><\/td>\n<td>($8,183.06)<\/td>\n<td>0.08%<\/td>\n<td>2.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XLY<\/td>\n<td>State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF<\/td>\n<td>$24,540<\/td>\n<td>7.27%<\/td>\n<td>9.10%<\/td>\n<td>($12.32)<\/td>\n<td>0.08%<\/td>\n<td>0.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XLRE<\/td>\n<td>State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF<\/td>\n<td>$7,449<\/td>\n<td>2.62%<\/td>\n<td>5.74%<\/td>\n<td>$592.32<\/td>\n<td>0.08%<\/td>\n<td><b>3.5%<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XLP<\/td>\n<td>State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF<\/td>\n<td>$14,781<\/td>\n<td>1.51%<\/td>\n<td>5.75%<\/td>\n<td>($1,234.77)<\/td>\n<td>0.08%<\/td>\n<td>2.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>VOO<\/td>\n<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF<\/td>\n<td>$838,907<\/td>\n<td>17.82%<\/td>\n<td>14.53%<\/td>\n<td>136,984.02<\/td>\n<td>0.03%<\/td>\n<td>1.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Current ValuEngine reports on all covered stocks and ETFS can be viewed<a href=\"https:\/\/valuengine.com\/dashboard\/report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<p>It is no surprise that for the third straight year, technology ETF <b>XLK <\/b>had the highest 2025 gain.\u00a0 However, all three subsector SPDR ETFs included here outgained them by a considerable margin.\u00a0 The top performer State Street SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining, <b>XME <\/b>outgained <b>XLK<\/b> by three-and-one-half times with a whopping 83.5%.\u00a0 This relates to the huge rise in precious metals prices in 2025.\u00a0 Another symptom of geopolitical anxiety was the meteoric 46% rise by <b>XAR <\/b>representing the Aerospace and industries.\u00a0 <b>XBI <\/b>represents Biotech, a very high standard deviation subsector, and is generally feast or famine.\u00a0 Buoyed by a big fourth quarter this year\u2019s return of 36% represents a feast but was not enough to propel the subsector\u2019s 5-year return out of negative territory.<\/p>\n<p>When turning focus to the actual sectors, <b>XLC<\/b> (the Communications Services Sector SPDR) and <b>XLI<\/b> (the Industrial Sector SPDR) are the only sectors to join <b>XLK<\/b> in outperforming the S&amp;P 500.\u00a0 <b>XLU<\/b>, the Utilities SPDR, had also been in this category after 11 months before taking a sudden December nosedive due to huge usage spikes by AI applications leading to concerns of a capacity crisis and skyrocketing costs.\u00a0 That did not prevent the low-Beta sector from enjoying the highest amount of net inflows last year.\u00a0 The highest amount of net outflows was suffered by <b>XLE<\/b>, the Energy Sector SPDR. This is partially due to the large amount of inflows in November and December buoyed by expectation that Trump\u2019s election would lead to a \u201cdirty energy\u201d boom.\u00a0 These expectations were quickly reversed by other geopolitical realities.\u00a0 On the short end of the return spectrum, two of the bottom three sectors are consumer-oriented, which highlights the well-reported economic doldrums pinching consumers\u2019 wallets.<\/p>\n<p>The top 22 performing indexed ETFs by the major category providers reflected two major trends already highlighted: huge inflation in the value of all metals and minerals and the increased relative attractiveness of ETFs of countries other than the US, partially attributable to relative decline of the dollar in addition to other factors.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Ticker<\/td>\n<td>ETF<\/td>\n<td>1 Year Returns<\/td>\n<td>ER<\/td>\n<td>Div Yield %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>SLVP<\/td>\n<td>iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF<\/td>\n<td>202.78%<\/td>\n<td>0.39%<\/td>\n<td>1.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>SILJ<\/td>\n<td>Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF<\/td>\n<td>183.82%<\/td>\n<td>0.69%<\/td>\n<td>2.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>GOEX<\/td>\n<td>Global X Gold Explorers ETF<\/td>\n<td>179.48%<\/td>\n<td>0.65%<\/td>\n<td>2.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>SIL<\/td>\n<td>Global X Silver Miners ETF<\/td>\n<td>166.14%<\/td>\n<td>0.65%<\/td>\n<td>1.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>RING<\/td>\n<td>iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF<\/td>\n<td>164.69%<\/td>\n<td>0.39%<\/td>\n<td>0.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>SLV<\/td>\n<td>iShares Silver Trust<\/td>\n<td>144.66%<\/td>\n<td>0.50%<\/td>\n<td>0.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>ION<\/td>\n<td>ProShares S&amp;P Global Core Battery Metals ETF<\/td>\n<td>108.34%<\/td>\n<td>0.58%<\/td>\n<td>1.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>DMAT<\/td>\n<td>Global X Disruptive Materials ETF<\/td>\n<td>98.45%<\/td>\n<td>0.59%<\/td>\n<td>0.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EWY<\/td>\n<td>iShares MSCI South Korea ETF<\/td>\n<td>95.32%<\/td>\n<td>0.59%<\/td>\n<td>2.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>COPX<\/td>\n<td>Global X Copper Miners ETF<\/td>\n<td>93.49%<\/td>\n<td>0.65%<\/td>\n<td>2.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EPU<\/td>\n<td>iShares MSCI Peru and Global Exposure ETF<\/td>\n<td>86.85%<\/td>\n<td>0.59%<\/td>\n<td>1.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>XME<\/td>\n<td>State Street SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF<\/td>\n<td>83.47%<\/td>\n<td>0.35%<\/td>\n<td>0.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>ILIT<\/td>\n<td>iShares Lithium Miners and Producers ETF<\/td>\n<td>81.45%<\/td>\n<td>0.47%<\/td>\n<td>2.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EWP<\/td>\n<td>iShares MSCI Spain ETF<\/td>\n<td>78.01%<\/td>\n<td>0.50%<\/td>\n<td>2.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>ICOP<\/td>\n<td>iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF<\/td>\n<td>77.99%<\/td>\n<td>0.47%<\/td>\n<td>2.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EPOL<\/td>\n<td>iShares MSCI Poland ETF<\/td>\n<td>77.31%<\/td>\n<td>0.59%<\/td>\n<td>4.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>GREK<\/td>\n<td>Global X MSCI Greece ETF<\/td>\n<td>76.10%<\/td>\n<td>0.57%<\/td>\n<td>3.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EZA<\/td>\n<td>iShares MSCI South Africa ETF<\/td>\n<td>75.19%<\/td>\n<td>0.59%<\/td>\n<td>6.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>PSIL<\/td>\n<td>AdvisorShares Psychedelics ETF<\/td>\n<td>74.50%<\/td>\n<td>1.00%<\/td>\n<td>10.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EWO<\/td>\n<td>iShares MSCI Austria ETF<\/td>\n<td>74.19%<\/td>\n<td>0.49%<\/td>\n<td>2.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>SHLD<\/td>\n<td>Global X Defense Tech ETF<\/td>\n<td>74.15%<\/td>\n<td>0.50%<\/td>\n<td>0.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>DBP<\/td>\n<td>Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund<\/td>\n<td>73.43%<\/td>\n<td>0.77%<\/td>\n<td>2.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Current ValuEngine reports on all covered stocks and ETFS can be viewed<a href=\"https:\/\/valuengine.com\/dashboard\/report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Looking ahead to relative performance in 2026, our models are still most bullish on <b>XLK, <\/b>the State Street Technology SPDR despite widespread fears of a bubble.\u00a0 Its rating remains at <b>5 <\/b>(Strong Buy).\u00a0 The next most attractive sector is Health Care as represented by <b>XLV<\/b>.\u00a0 Its rating is <b>4 <\/b>(Buy).\u00a0 The Finance SPDR, <b>XLF<\/b>, long amongst our most attractive, has fallen to a <b>3 <\/b>(Hold) while Utilities ETF <b>XLU <\/b>is now rated <b>2<\/b> (Sell).\u00a0 Three sector ETFs get our lowest rating of 1 (Strong Sell).<b>\u00a0 <\/b>They are Energy, <b>XLE<\/b>, Real Estate, <b>XLRE<\/b> and Consumer Discretionary, <b>XLY.\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Turning to individual stocks and with many investors focusing on growth at reasonable prices in this environment, we\u2019ve included the top companies with reasonable valuations and meeting investible criteria.\u00a0 This list has been included in a few contest entries as our top-ten portfolio for the year.\u00a0 That said, please remember that our ratings are dynamic and at some time later this year, they might change.\u00a0 This problem is endemic for all year-long frozen portfolios entered in prediction competitions, but we believe that context is important when sharing lists and data.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Ticker<\/td>\n<td>Company Name<\/td>\n<td>Forecast Rank<\/td>\n<td>Price 12\/31<\/td>\n<td>Fair Value<\/td>\n<td>Actual Earnings<\/td>\n<td>Earnings Estimate<\/td>\n<td>VE Rating<\/td>\n<td>Valuation<\/p>\n<p>(mispricing)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>AL<\/td>\n<td>AIR LEASE CORP<\/td>\n<td>99<\/td>\n<td>64.15<\/td>\n<td>65.79<\/td>\n<td>5.24<\/td>\n<td>12.67<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>2.49% undervalued<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>HALO<\/td>\n<td>HALOZYME THERA<\/td>\n<td>99<\/td>\n<td>70.31<\/td>\n<td>71.57<\/td>\n<td>5.97<\/td>\n<td>7.04<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>1.76% undervalued<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>VLVLY<\/td>\n<td>VOLVO AB-B<\/td>\n<td>97<\/td>\n<td>32.34<\/td>\n<td>31.31<\/td>\n<td>2.00<\/td>\n<td>2.53<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>3.29% overvalued<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>NFG<\/td>\n<td>NATL FUEL GAS<\/td>\n<td>97<\/td>\n<td>82.06<\/td>\n<td>83.48<\/td>\n<td>7.20<\/td>\n<td>8.76<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>1.71% undervalued<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>THC<\/td>\n<td>TENET HEALTH<\/td>\n<td>97<\/td>\n<td>199.45<\/td>\n<td>207.51<\/td>\n<td>16.13<\/td>\n<td>16.66<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>3.88% undervalued<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>JXN<\/td>\n<td>JACKSON FINL<\/td>\n<td>96<\/td>\n<td>107.46<\/td>\n<td>115.75<\/td>\n<td>21.61<\/td>\n<td>23.81<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>7.16% undervalued<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>UBER<\/td>\n<td>UBER TECHNOLOGS<\/td>\n<td>93<\/td>\n<td>82.86<\/td>\n<td>94.49<\/td>\n<td>5.40<\/td>\n<td>8.67<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>12.31% undervalued<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>UHS<\/td>\n<td>UNIVL HLTH SVCS<\/td>\n<td>92<\/td>\n<td>219.88<\/td>\n<td>234.9<\/td>\n<td>21.75<\/td>\n<td>23.64<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>6.39% undervalued<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>TRV<\/td>\n<td>TRAVELERS COS<\/td>\n<td>91<\/td>\n<td>285.19<\/td>\n<td>301.48<\/td>\n<td>24.90<\/td>\n<td>26.36<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>5.40% undervalued<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>PFG<\/td>\n<td>PRINCIPAL FINL<\/td>\n<td>90<\/td>\n<td>89.42<\/td>\n<td>93.46<\/td>\n<td>8.30<\/td>\n<td>9.37<\/td>\n<td>5<\/td>\n<td>4.32% undervalued<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Current ValuEngine reports on all covered stocks and ETFS can be viewed<a href=\"https:\/\/valuengine.com\/dashboard\/report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In summary, geopolitical news grabs all the headlines. But ValuEngine ratings and quantitative data are solely based on fundamental data points such as earnings and correlations to interest rate, as well as pricing, and economic data.\u00a0 Despite evidence of rotation, our models still favor concentrated growth stock indices.\u00a0 However, proceed with caution. Metals and defense were among the best performing sub-sectors in 2025 and given expectations that prevailing uncertainties will continue indefinitely, these sectors should continue to perform well albeit perhaps not quite so robustly.<\/p>\n<p>We live in unprecedented times.\u00a0 In a sense, we always do.\u00a0 However, geopolitical unrest is at its highest since 2002 and government intrusiveness seems to be at its greatest since the FDR era.\u00a0 This increases both positive and negative standard deviations in predicting future probabilities of outcomes.\u00a0 Current unprecedented global initiatives by this Administration could bring unprecedented prosperity to US investors.\u00a0 That is certainly among the goals being sought.\u00a0 However, there are significant voices that are very concerned about global-economic stability and the value of fiat currencies going forward. The refrain is that breaching precedents is risky and that they had been established for decades for good reason.\u00a0 It is nearly impossible for investors to know in advance what progress is and what grievous error is.\u00a0 Time will tell.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine\u2019s research models:<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuenginecapital.com\/\"> <b>www.ValuEngineCapital.com<\/b><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As for ValuEngine, we must rely on our data and assume that the factors driven by the market and economic data that power our model will continue to apply to future events.\u00a0 That is the power of adaptive stochastic modeling.\u00a0 Beyond that, human anxiety and emotional responses tend to do more to destroy wealth than to preserve and\/or augment it. Stick to the data.<\/p>\n<p><b>________________________________________________________________<\/b><\/p>\n<h5><b>By Herbert Blank<\/b><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Senior Quantitative Analyst, ValuEngine Inc (<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <b>www.ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/a><b> )<\/b><\/h5>\n<h5><b>support@ValuEngine.com \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 (321) 325-0519<\/b><\/h5>\n<h5><b>All of the over 4,200 stocks, 15 sector groups, over 250 industries, and 700 ETFs have been updated on<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuengine.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b> www.ValuEngine.com<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine research available through<\/b><a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuenginecapital.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b> ValuEngine Capital Management, LLC<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5><b>FREE Two-Week Trial to all 6,000 plus equities and ETFs covered by ValuEngine<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/ww2.valuengine.com\/products-and-pricing\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b> HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<h5><b>Subscribers log in<\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/valuengine.com\/dashboard\/login\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> <b>HERE<\/b><\/a><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Typically, the first full blog of the year reviews returns of benchmark index ETFs and opines on what prevailed in the past year through five years, then provides analysis that could provide insights into the future for US equities and other asset classes.\u00a0 This year is no different in that respect. Financial Advisory Services based &#8230; <a title=\"2025 ETF Wrap-Up &#038; What to Expect in 2026\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/2025-etf-wrap-up-what-to-expect-in-2026\/\" aria-label=\"More on 2025 ETF Wrap-Up &#038; What to Expect in 2026\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[2945,1939,122,2966,2954,2964,2952,2720,2719,2959,2955,1760,1761,1719,2963,2957,2953,2961,2949,2960,1981,2869,2967,1731,1774,2316,2958,2956,1483,2951,1834,2965,2969,1833,2871,2968,1747,147,2929,2962,1617,1689,1510,1911,1938,1778,1858,2946,213,2950,2948,1881,2947,1281,2516,54,2660,2927,2928,2925,2926,28,63,589,1768,1766,2462,2403,1915,2607,1808,2121,2085,2277,1849,2279,1887,1814,2707,1900,2276,2278,1992],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3793"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3793"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3793\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3802,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3793\/revisions\/3802"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3793"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3793"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.valuengine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3793"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}