11/17/2025 ValuEngine Weekly Market Summary & Commentary

The past week saw a clear defensive tilt across major ETFs, with only a handful of pockets showing resilience. Utilities, consumer staples, and select dividend strategies managed modest gains, while growth-heavy benchmarks such as QQQM and technology-sector ETFs slipped more than 2%. At the individual-stock level, several names continued strong 30-day momentum, although the broader tone across equities leaned cautious. This mix of selective strength and broad weakness underscores the market’s ongoing search for stability as investors reassess risk heading into late November.

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In the below table we use major ETF’s as a proxy for some major indexes as well as each of the sector groups into which we divide the overall markets. Tracking these over time provides a more defined picture of the US markets than simply tracking major indexes.

Thus far, turning the calendar to November has inverted the order of most market benchmark index ETFs we follow here. As abruptly as flipping a light switch, the market has shifted from a “risk-on” to “risk-off” environment. Small-cap stocks, represented by IWM (the iShares Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF), have plummeted more than 3.5% month-to-date, leading the decline. In contrast, the State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF (SPYM) regained only a tiny fraction of last week’s losses and remains down 1.5% for the month, while the Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF QQQM is still down 3.2%.

One notable reversal this month is that the Vanguard Value ETF VTV is up 0.75% while its growth counterpart VUG is down 3.1%. Driven partly by weakness in the U.S. dollar, developed foreign markets have also shown relative strength, with EFA (iShares MSCI EAFE Index ETF) up 0.8% so far in November. After two shaky weeks to end October, gold has reasserted itself as a store of value—GLDM (SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust) is up 2.0% month-to-date. Among non-stock “ETFs”—more precisely, exchange-traded grantor trusts—the biggest story is the sudden bear market in Bitcoin. IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF) has fallen more than 14% this month and more than 20% since its mid-October all-time high. Beyond the time-honored advice not to catch falling knives, there is little guidance on how much further Bitcoin may fall.

Turning to recent stock movements and major strategist recommendations, we can observe signs of a potential growth-to-value regime shift in U.S. equities. VTV in particular has spent the past four weeks improving in relative strength, while VUG—one of the strongest performers in the year’s first eight months—has weakened meaningfully. Inside VTV, the largest holding by far is megabank JPMorgan Chase (JPM), rated 5 (Strong Buy) with a 3.6% portfolio weight—at least 50% higher than any other position. Two other notable VTV constituents rated 4 (Buy) are Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Bank of America (BAC). Ten other Strong Buy stocks are currently held by VTV. The five largest include Micron Technology (MU), Newmont Corporation (NEM), Citigroup (C), Estee Lauder (EL), and Fox News A-Class Shares (FOXA). Dollar Tree (DLTR) is another notable 5-rated holding.

All of this has occurred during VTV’s rise from a 1-rated ETF six weeks ago to maintaining a 3-rated, much improved profile today. If the long-anticipated rotation from growth to value is finally underway, VTV and its key holdings could benefit further. Supporting this thesis is one value-focused ETF now rated 4 (Buy): the First Trust Dorsey Wright Momentum & Value ETF (DVLU), which tracks 50 undervalued NASDAQ U.S. Large Mid Cap stocks exhibiting high relative strength. Investors should note its 60-basis-point expense ratio—15 times higher than VTV’s 4 basis points.

This emerging rotation narrative could shift quickly if weekend reports prove true that the Trump Administration may temporarily pause import tariffs on key consumer goods ahead of the holiday season. Should this materialize, technology-related growth companies may benefit the most—potentially disrupting or reversing the recent value-favoring trend. As always, the devil is in the details.