Market Efficiency and Personal Access to Cash Receipts Improve Dramatically: T+1

On May 28, 2024, a new rule went into effect that will affect almost every stock, bond, and ETF trade in U.S. markets.  This new rule establishes the “T+1” settlement cycle, and it relates to how long it takes for securities transactions to clear and settle.  These securities include all US exchange-traded stocks, corporate and … Read more

Quantitative Investment Modeling – 120 Years Since Bachelier: Part 2 (After Computers)

Part I of this article (posted on on May 22, click HERE) started with Louis Bachelier’s work from 1900 and covered all the theoretical work done up to and including William Sharpe, Ph.D.’s seminal work in 1964.  However, none of that early research had yet been applied successfully to actual investments in any meaningful … Read more

Quantitative Investment Modeling – 120 Years Since Bachelier: Part 1 (Before Computers)

The history of quantitative analysis goes back far before computers, and this work leads directly into how the field progresses once computers can be applied. In this first post we explore the history and development of quantitative analysis as it applied to finance in the pre-computer world of the early through mid 20th century. Actively … Read more

Industrial Strength

Existing subscribers alert: ValuEngine is preparing to launch a completely redesigned website in the coming weeks.  Alerts and more information will be sent a few days prior to the launch. Financial journals have been deluged with stories to the effect that all of the 2023 gains in the S&P 500 were caused by 7 (or … Read more

A Much-Needed Educational Piece about So-Called “Spot Bitcoin ETFs”

Eight years after the first application for a “Spot Bitcoin ETF” was filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), ten of them started trading on January 11, 2024.  The landmark decision was precipitated by Grayscale’s legal victory against the SEC in 2023. Sponsors of the nine so-called “ETFs” include well-known firms like Ark … Read more

The Terrible Ten

“The Magnificent Seven” was the most popular sobriquet among stock market strategists, portfolio managers and reporters in 2023.  Stocks such as Google, Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Apple dominated performance and volume charts.  Almost unnoticed, Broadcom pushed its way to 4th in Market Cap in the Nasdaq and more than doubled in price last year … Read more

Turning the Page to 2024

Farewell and thank you to 2023 which exceeded almost everybody’s expectations after a dismal 2022 and predictions of a dire recession.  This blog was more positive than most, projecting a 5% to 10% gain for the S&P 500 vs. the actual price gain of 23.9%.  Now it’s on to 2024.  Let’s start with our quarterly … Read more

A November to Remember While Recession Warnings Persist

Despite all the negative-to-flat market expectations from Wall Street specialists and other pundits that frequent CNBC for 2023, the recession they feared did not manifest itself, soft landing or otherwise. The economy continued to be strong enough to avoid negative GDP growth. S&P 500 Index ETFs, including SPLG, continue to outperform other broad-based benchmark ETFs … Read more

Using Emerging Internet and Technology ETFs to Identify Stock-Buying Opportunities

The “Magnificent Seven” has now replaced “FAMANGs” as the nickname for current market leadership.  It is also a somewhat deridingly used term for the “overpriced” stocks hated by value managers.  Holdovers include Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google.  Gone is Netflix.  New are Nvidia and Tesla while Facebook had a facelift to be renamed Meta. As … Read more

Reviewing the 3rd Quarter While Looking Ahead to Year-End

The third quarter of 2023 is now history.  The September effect overwhelmed mildly positive returns in July and August to submerge all six benchmark indexes we monitor quarterly into the red.  Although the order of best to worst varies among the six indexes, one commonality is having September as the worst historical month, both in … Read more