The third quarter was a tale of two halves. The market staged what turned out to be a bear market rally throughout July and the first two weeks of August. Then it was as if somebody blew a whistle. The next six weeks saw the bear return with a vengeance.
The ETF reports on ValuEngine for ETFs that follow market benchmarks provide a side benefit in writing market analyses. They are a window to implicit forecasts for the 3-, 6- and 12-month forecasts that the VE models are making for each benchmark’s ETF portfolio. This is because the ratings and projections combine bottom-up constituent analysis with analyses of the historical price movements of the ETF in different market environments.
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The benchmark indexes and ETFs chosen for this feature are:
- The S&P 500 Index representing US Large Cap, the ETF is iShares’ SPY;
- The S&P 400 MidCap Index representing US MidCap; the ETF is SPDR’s MDY;
- The Russell 2000 Index representing US Small Cap; the ETF is iShares’ IWM
- The Russell 1000 Large Cap Growth Index; the ETF is iShares’ IWF;
- The Russell 1000 Large Cap Value Index; the ETF is iShares’ IWD;
- The Nasdaq-100, constructed as an index using the top 100 non-financial stocks with primary listing on the Nasdaq, is now regarded as the premier US Big Tech Index; the ETF is Invesco QQQ.
The Following chart tracks the dichotomy of price returns between the first half of the quarter and the second half.
Current ValuEngine reports on these stocks or ETFS can be viewed HERE
| IWD | IWF | IWM | MDY | QQQ | SPY | |
| Market Index Being Tracked | Russell Large Cap Value | Russell Large Cap Growth | Russell 2000 Small Cap | S&P Midcap | Nasdaq 100 | S&P 500 |
| July 1- Aug. 15 | 9.33% | 16.48% | 17.30% | 14.13% | 18.05% | 12.49% |
| Aug. 15- Sep. 30 | -15.61% | -18.28% | -17.95% | -16.51% | -19.57% | -16.87% |
| Entire 3rd Quarter | -7.35% | -4.80% | -3.79% | -4.10% | -5.27% | -6.31% |
Somewhat surprisingly, small cap stocks and mid cap stocks as represented by their respective ETFs held up during the quarter better than the four indexes representing various segments of large cap stocks. The ETF for small cap stocks, IWM, was also the most robust during the rally period and held onto more of its gains during the August 15 – September 30 market collapse than any of the other five ETFs that registered the smallest losses for the quarter. In contrast, large-cap value stocks, as measured by IWD, lagged the other five ETFs by quite a bit during the July through mid-August rally. Thus, even though IWD had the least severe loss during the rest of the 3rd quarter, it wound up as the biggest loser for the full quarter. On balance, large-cap value was not the place to be during the 3rd quarter of 2022. Similarly, even though QQQ suffered the worst carnage in the second half of the 3rd quarter, the fact that it had previously led the group on the way up resulted in a lower decline in the 3rd quarter for QQQ than SPY.
That’s what happened in the 3rd quarter. What could happen next? For pondering that question, let’s look at the data summary table below. All data are as of Oct. 14, 2022.
| IWD | IWF | IWM | MDY | QQQ | SPY | |
| Market Index Being Tracked | Russell Large Cap Value | Russell Large Cap Growth | Russell 2000 Small Cap | S&P Midcap | Nasdaq 100 | S&P 500 |
| ValuEngine Rating | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| VE Forecast 3-mo. Price Return | 2.07% | 2.65% | 1.36% | 1.64% | 2.38% | 2.4% |
| VE Forecast 6-Mo. Price Return | 4.65% | 5.57% | 3.06% | 3.70% | 5.17% | 5.17% |
| VE Forecast 1-yr. Price Return | -2.87% | 0.27% | -1.81% | -2.80% | -0.01% | -1.44% |
| Historic 3 mo. Price Return | -3.51% | -6.92% | -1.62% | -0.69% | -9.05% | -5.37% |
| Historic 6 mo. Price Return | -16.49% | -20.94% | -16.16% | -14.51% | -22.96% | -18.31% |
| Year-to-Date Return | -15.01% | -29.91% | -22.19% | -18.1% | -32.1% | -22.06% |
| Historic 1-Yr. Price Return | -14.67% | -26.83% | -26.15% | -18.18% | -28.88% | -19.18% |
| Historic 5-Yr Ann. Price Return | 5.17% | 12.69% | 5.45% | 6.83% | 14.33% | 9.36% |
| Volatility | 18.1% | 19.8% | 23.0% | 21.5% | 20.6% | 17.7% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.29 | 0.64 | 0.24 | 0.32 | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| Beta | 0.97 | 1.08 | 1.17 | 1.14 | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| # of Stocks | 853 | 518 | 1970 | 400 | 100 | 502 |
| Undervalued by VE % | 62% | 63% | 73% | 62% | 57% | 58% |
| P/B Ratio | 2.3 | 9.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 |
| P/E Ratio | 14.8 | 27.7 | 27.8 | 13.0 | 24.4 | 18.8 |
| Div. Yield | 2.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% |
| Expense Ratio | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.19% | 0.22% | 0.20% | 0.09% |
| Largest Holding Pct. | J & J (JNJ)
2.5% VE2 |
Apple (AAPL) 12.7% VE3 | Shockwave (SWAV)
0.4%, VE4 |
Carlisle (CSL),
0.8%, VE3 |
Apple (AAPL)
13.7% VE3 |
Apple (AAPL)
7.0% VE3 |
| Index Provider | FTSE Russell Indices | FTSE Russell Indices | FTSE Russell Indices | S&P Dow Jones | Nasdaq | S&P Dow Jones |
| Index
Scheme |
Mkt. Cap Weighting | Mkt. Cap Weighting | Mkt. Cap Weighting | Mkt. Cap Weighting | Mkt. Cap Weighting | Mkt. Cap Weighting |
| ETF Sponsor | iShares by Blackrock | iShares by Blackrock | iShares by Blackrock | SPDRs by SSgA | Invesco | SPDRs by SSgA |
Current ValuEngine reports on these stocks or ETFS can be viewed HERE
In order to frame our forecasts, let’s look at the ValuEngine rankings that summarize our models’ views on the expected price appreciation of SPY, the SPDR (“spider”) based on the S&P 500 Index. Given its bellwether status as the market’s proxy, a rating of 3 (neutral) is the norm for SPY. The ValuEngine market forecasts for SPY – and thus the S&P 500 – will vary from negative to positive depending on our models’ assessments of the current environment.
Focusing on the S&P 500 column in the three rows in the table above that contains our forecasts, our models expect the market to navigate the next three to six months in positive territory. After that, however, between mid-April and mid-October, our models forecast that the S&P 500 will relinquish those price gains and a bit more.
Are there segments of the market for which the ValuEngine models have a more positive outlook? Yes, the two large cap growth-oriented ETFs, Russell Large Cap Growth, IWF, and Nasdaq-100, QQQ both get ValuEngine’s second-highest rating of 4 (attractive) for upcoming performance. Of the two, IWF gets our highest forecast targets across the board and is the only one of the six benchmark ETFs to have a positive forecast target for one-year-ahead performance.
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In contrast, the S&P MidCap ETF, MDY, held up best during the past three-month and six-month declines but is not expected to perform as well as the other benchmark ETFs going forward. Its rating is 2 (below average) and its return targets for the next 3-, 6-, and 12-month periods are our second lowest across the board. IWD, the Russell 1000 Value ETF, also rated 2, receives our lowest return targets.
On a valuation basis, the small cap segment ETF, IWM, looks unusually attractive on a price-to-book ratio basis. It also has the highest percentage of undervalued companies, 73%, according to our valuation models. Moreover, three of the stocks in its top ten weightings are rated 4 (attractive) by ValuEngine. These include Shockwave Medical (SWAV); Chart Industries (GTLS); and Karuna Therapeutic (KRTX).
In general, a little over 62% of ValuEngine stocks are deemed undervalued by our valuation model as compared with just below 40% at the beginning of the year. Therefore a 22% decline in SPY has been enough to transform a market with more than 60% overvalued to one that has the same proportion of stocks now undervalued relative to intrinsic value. This can be thought of as analogous from a market being overbought to one that is now oversold. This interpretation would be consistent with the positive three- and six-month forecasts for SPY and the other benchmark ETFs.
Will this optimistic forecast be enough for buy-and-hold investors to recapture a significant percentage of account balance declines already caused by the current bear market? As per usual, only time can tell. The best we can say is that our signals have now shifted to being guardedly optimistic for the next six months.
By Herbert Blank
Senior Quantitative Analyst, ValuEngine Inc
www.ValuEngine.com
support@ValuEngine.com
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All of the approximately 5,000 stocks, 16 sector groups, 140 industries, and 600 ETFs have been updated on www.ValuEngine.com
Financial Advisory Services based on ValuEngine research available through ValuEngine Capital Management, LLC
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