Farewell and thank you to 2023 which exceeded almost everybody’s expectations after a dismal 2022 and predictions of a dire recession. This blog was more positive than most, projecting a 5% to 10% gain for the S&P 500 vs. the actual price gain of 23.9%. Now it’s on to 2024. Let’s start with our quarterly … Read more
Despite all the negative-to-flat market expectations from Wall Street specialists and other pundits that frequent CNBC for 2023, the recession they feared did not manifest itself, soft landing or otherwise. The economy continued to be strong enough to avoid negative GDP growth. S&P 500 Index ETFs, including SPLG, continue to outperform other broad-based benchmark ETFs … Read more
The third quarter of 2023 is now history. The September effect overwhelmed mildly positive returns in July and August to submerge all six benchmark indexes we monitor quarterly into the red. Although the order of best to worst varies among the six indexes, one commonality is having September as the worst historical month, both in … Read more
Approaching 2023, the experts were in near unanimity that the fourth quarter of 2022 was little more than a dead cat bounce and that once the inevitable recession hit, the bear market would quickly take the S&P 500 Index to new lows. Instead, the first six months have seen the Nasdaq-100 ETF, Invesco QQQ rise … Read more
In January, we published “Rotating Regimes – What to Plan For in 2023.” At that time, we recounted that the 2022 US Stock Market was a conflagration that wiped out almost everything in its path with the exception of a few industries and ETFs. At that time, we reported that two Benchmark ETFs we track, … Read more
In general, the 2022 US Stock Market was a conflagration that wiped out almost everything in its path with the exception of a few industries and ETFs. The ETF reports on ValuEngine for ETFs that follow market benchmarks provide a side benefit in writing market analyses. They are a window to implicit forecasts for 3-, … Read more
The third quarter was a tale of two halves. The market staged what turned out to be a bear market rally throughout July and the first two weeks of August. Then it was as if somebody blew a whistle. The next six weeks saw the bear return with a vengeance. The ETF reports on ValuEngine … Read more
There was a hilarious Match.com commercial at the end of 2020 where the year, portrayed by Kristen Bell, became a perfect match for Satan. This is exactly how many equity investors felt about the first half of 2022. 2020 turned out to be a good year for the market as the government stepped in with … Read more
The first quarter was rather turbulent. But given the unexpected burst of inflation and the savage Russian invasion of the Ukraine, the final price reading of the S&P 500 of -5.2% comes almost as a relief. A late rally in March mitigated the overall damage The ETF reports on ValuEngine that follow market benchmarks provide … Read more
There is no sugarcoating it. January was a lousy month for the market. Many pundits are certain that this is the beginning of a yearlong downturn. Other experts are calling this a dip and a buying opportunity. Our models at ValuEngine are mixed with a six-month forecast on S&P 500 ETFs of +2.6% but a … Read more