Reviewing the 3rd Quarter While Looking Ahead to Year-End

The third quarter of 2023 is now history.  The September effect overwhelmed mildly positive returns in July and August to submerge all six benchmark indexes we monitor quarterly into the red.  Although the order of best to worst varies among the six indexes, one commonality is having September as the worst historical month, both in … Read more

2023 Midyear Review of Index ETFs and Smart Beta Strategies

Approaching 2023, the experts were in near unanimity that the fourth quarter of 2022 was little more than a dead cat bounce and that once the inevitable recession hit, the bear market would quickly take the S&P 500 Index to new lows.  Instead, the first six months have seen the Nasdaq-100 ETF, Invesco QQQ rise … Read more

Large-Cap Growth Rampage Could Be Creating Small-Cap Value Opportunities

In January, we published “Rotating Regimes – What to Plan For in 2023.” At that time, we recounted that the 2022 US Stock Market was a conflagration that wiped out almost everything in its path with the exception of a few industries and ETFs. At that time, we reported that two Benchmark ETFs we track, … Read more

Rotating Regimes – What to Plan For in 2023

In general, the 2022 US Stock Market was a conflagration that wiped out almost everything in its path with the exception of a few industries and ETFs.  The ETF reports on ValuEngine for ETFs that follow market benchmarks provide a side benefit in writing market analyses.  They are a window to implicit forecasts for 3-, … Read more

3rd Quarter US Benchmark ETF Update

The third quarter was a tale of two halves.  The market staged what turned out to be a bear market rally throughout July and the first two weeks of August.  Then it was as if somebody blew a whistle.  The next six weeks saw the bear return with a vengeance.  The ETF reports on ValuEngine … Read more

Good Riddance to the First Half of 2022: What next?

There was a hilarious Match.com commercial at the end of 2020 where the year, portrayed by Kristen Bell, became a perfect match for Satan. This is exactly how many equity investors felt about the first half of 2022.   2020 turned out to be a good year for the market as the government stepped in with … Read more

2nd Quarter US Benchmark ETF Update

The first quarter was rather turbulent. But given the unexpected burst of inflation and the savage Russian invasion of the Ukraine, the final price reading of the S&P 500 of -5.2% comes almost as a relief.  A late rally in March mitigated the overall damage The ETF reports on ValuEngine that follow market benchmarks provide … Read more

2022 Market Forecasts: Sell in May and Go Away?

A common toast has been: “May 2022 be better than 2021!”  However, where the US Stock Market is concerned, most of us would gratefully accept a repeat of 2021’s returns.   The ETF reports on ValuEngine.com for funds that follow market benchmarks provide a side benefit in writing market analyses.  They are a window to implicit … Read more

Mid-Year Market Forecasts

The ETF reports on ValuEngine for funds that follow market benchmarks provide a side benefit in writing market analyses.  They allow me to discuss the implicit forecast for 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month forecasts our models are making for each benchmark’s ETF portfolio.  This is because the ratings and projections combine bottom-up constituent analysis with … Read more