Quantitative Investment Modeling – 120 Years Since Bachelier: Part 2 (After Computers)

Part I of this article (posted on Blog.ValuEngine.com on May 22, click HERE) started with Louis Bachelier’s work from 1900 and covered all the theoretical work done up to and including William Sharpe, Ph.D.’s seminal work in 1964.  However, none of that early research had yet been applied successfully to actual investments in any meaningful … Read more

A November to Remember While Recession Warnings Persist

Despite all the negative-to-flat market expectations from Wall Street specialists and other pundits that frequent CNBC for 2023, the recession they feared did not manifest itself, soft landing or otherwise. The economy continued to be strong enough to avoid negative GDP growth. S&P 500 Index ETFs, including SPLG, continue to outperform other broad-based benchmark ETFs … Read more

Using Emerging Internet and Technology ETFs to Identify Stock-Buying Opportunities

The “Magnificent Seven” has now replaced “FAMANGs” as the nickname for current market leadership.  It is also a somewhat deridingly used term for the “overpriced” stocks hated by value managers.  Holdovers include Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google.  Gone is Netflix.  New are Nvidia and Tesla while Facebook had a facelift to be renamed Meta. As … Read more

Reviewing the 3rd Quarter While Looking Ahead to Year-End

The third quarter of 2023 is now history.  The September effect overwhelmed mildly positive returns in July and August to submerge all six benchmark indexes we monitor quarterly into the red.  Although the order of best to worst varies among the six indexes, one commonality is having September as the worst historical month, both in … Read more

The Many Dimensions of Technology ETFs and the Stocks They Hold

The US Stock Market, led by technology, has outperformed most expectations this year. Going into Memorial Day weekend, SPY, the most popular S&P 500 ETF, has risen more than 10%. That’s a very impressive number in the face of many of the best-known strategists predicting a down year for the major index in 2023.   As … Read more

Ill-Defined Outcomes – Results of a Research Study on Downside Mitigation ETFs

2022 provided a litmus test for ETFs designed to shield Investors from the full impact of a major stock market decline. The bad news is that half of them failed.  The good news is that three of them actually did perform in line with their objectives. These are the results of a recent study that I co-authored … Read more

GARP with Yield and Excluding Falling Knives

GARP is an acronym used in the investment industry to connote “growth at reasonable prices.”  Last week, we discussed the market size and style trends year-to-date and what our models expect to see for the year ahead.  The bottom line is that both our predictive and valuation models thought the mega-cap-weighted ETFs, such as QQQ, … Read more

Bank Stocks and ETFs – Time to Buy?

The Editor-in-Chief of well-respected publisher ETF Stream, Tom Eckett, published a rare editorial Friday March 24 saying the big selloff in banks due to fear of contagion was close to over.  He said at these levels, bank ETFs were at rarely seen low levels compared with earnings expectations and should not be thrown off too … Read more

Which S&P 500 Stocks Are Currently Most Attractive?

Those of you who follow ValuEngine’s weekly lists of top-rated, (5 rated on scale of 1 to 5), Strong Buy stocks may have noticed that most of these stocks tend to be in the lower half of the market cap spectrum.  This is a function of the fact that our scores are tied to our … Read more

Six-Month Update – Wealth Preservation with Limited Market Participation in a Risk-On Environment

Six months ago, I discussed ways that investors could stay invested with one eye squarely on wealth preservation in a risk-on environment.  We are still in a risk-on environment where the choices we reviewed in March are still relevant. One half of the list included five stock-based ETFs without derivatives that focus on stocks with … Read more